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Biotech / Medical : Biotech & Pharma.T.A, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (717)	1/29/2005 7:46:26 PM
From: Tomato	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3722

Whoa, Nellie! Ray. I just want to know from Peter what he means by going down the list in order. No biggie. BTW, do you quantify your TA results? I've found that when I meticulously follow people on other threads who will go unnamed that their results aren't very stellar. I just tracked one guy I thought was really good from how others patted him on the back and found that in the 3 weeks or so I kept records of his picks that his losers and flat trades led his winners by about 2-1. Maybe people like him that do a lot of options make so much money on the winners that the their majority of losers don't matter that much? I always liked Gary B. Smith the best of all the many TA people I've read, since he laid everything out better than anyone else with a needed emphasis on money management and back testing. Are there any patterns you (or anyone else that's reading) use that you find work profitably, say, 75% of the time or better? BTW, another thing about TA that I find disconcerting is that there is a big contradiction between the findings about chart patterns and their success rates in Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Bulkowski and the success rates of the Prophet or Clearstation (can't remember which one has the pattern recognition feature which costs $$$) patterns. E.g. ascending triangles in the Encyclopedia have a fantastic success rate but the Prophet or Clearstation pattern recognition has their success rate as wildly different. Bottom line- after studying charts for over 12 years I'm not sure that using them is any better than chance....but hope springs eternal... The one pattern that I'm most interested in is the one that Dr. Elder calls a kangaroo tail-- a candlestick with a long tail that signals a reversal. Think it needs to be sandwiched in between 2 others kind of tight. BTW, I seem to recall Rick telling me that charts don't work with biotechs. This seems to make sense when there's a binary event coming-- the news will trump any chart, IMO. Amyway-- grist for discussion, if anyone is interested.... Fried Green