And another article on it- from the WaPo:
U.S. Food Imports Increase, May Match Exports This Year
By Griff Witte and Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, November 25, 2004; Page E01
When Aroon Roy Padharia gathers today with family and friends for Thanksgiving dinner, the cuisine will be authentically Indian, with the same preparation methods and recipes that he loves from his native land.
But the ingredients will come from all over: To make the dishes they want, Padharia's dinner companions will have to look beyond American vegetables, grains and spices to products that come from India, the Middle East, Vietnam and elsewhere.
Ethiopian flour is popular at Arada International Market, whose customers use it to make traditional breads. (Melina Mara -- The Washington Post)
"Whatever they import, we come in and buy," said the Maryland attorney yesterday as he scanned the aisles of Spice of India, a Takoma Park market. "We often don't even know where it's coming from."
The ever-increasing appetite for foreign foods and beverages in the United States is among the reasons the nation is expected to pay as much for imported farm products in fiscal 2005 as it earns by selling wheat, soybeans and other products abroad, according to a Department of Agriculture report released this week. Whether it's immigrants seeking a taste of home, a family hungry for out-of-season produce or a connoisseur hunting a vintage Bordeaux, the national pantry has become increasingly eclectic.
If the USDA's forecast is accurate, 2005 will mark the first time since the late 1950s that the country didn't record an agricultural surplus.
"It's quite a surprise. We've had this trade surplus for so long and it's been so large in most years. To be zero is a departure from where it's been," said Bruce Gardner, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Maryland. "And the reasons suggest it isn't likely to turn around. . . . This probably is not just a one-year blip."
U.S. consumers are projected to buy more foreign wine, beer, fruits, vegetables and beef this year, helping push the value of all U.S. agricultural imports to $56 billion in the government fiscal year that started Oct. 1, up from $52.7 billion last year, the department said.
Meanwhile, the value of U.S. farm exports is projected to fall to $56 billion this fiscal year from a peak of $62.3 billion in the prior year, largely reflecting lower prices for many products, the report said.
The nation exported $9.6 billion more in farm products than it imported last year. The forecast for fiscal 2005 could still change and is subject to shifts in a variety of factors, including exchange rates, gross domestic product and foreign production. Nonetheless, the trend toward a disappearing agricultural surplus is clear. "We expected it to happen eventually. We didn't know how soon it was going to happen," said report author and USDA economist Carol Whitton.
The country's evolution into a net food importer would further erode its balance of trade with the rest of the world. Agriculture represents just a small slice of total American trade, but the farm sector has dependably produced a surplus to offset, if only slightly, the boatloads of electronics and other consumer goods shipped in from Asia.
The total U.S. trade deficit is now running at a close to $600 billion annual rate. Total imports just for the nine months that ended in September were worth $1.079 trillion, according to the Commerce Department. That's up from $934 billion in the same period last year.
This year, imports of agricultural products are running at less than 5 percent of total imports, and exports of agricultural products stand at about 7 percent of total exports.
The prospect of a diminished agricultural surplus isn't necessarily bad news for American farmers, according to David Salmonsen, senior director for congressional relations at the American Farm Bureau Federation, an organization of agricultural producers. Salmonsen cited 2004's record exports and explained that many of the imported goods proving popular among American consumers are items not generally produced by U.S. farmers.
"If you look in any supermarket -- particularly around here but nationwide as well -- you see an increasing variety of imported products," he said.
Large immigrant populations in the United States have contributed to that trend, because people demand imports from their homelands and because they help spark interest in ethnic cuisine among the general population.
"Many of us are eating more ethnic foods than we used to, regardless of whether we are immigrants or not," Whitton said.
At Arada International Market in Takoma Park, owner Bahru Gebremedhin said while most of his customers are Ethiopian immigrants, he has a significant number of non-Ethiopian customers as well who come to buy his imported spices, beans and lentils. "They have learned how to cook traditional Ethiopian food," he said.
Americans' overall demand for imported food, in terms of volume rather than value, tends to roughly rise in line with population growth, the USDA report said. The value of total imports, by contrast, varies according to import prices, which reflect supply and demand and changes in exchange rates.
The total value of agricultural imports is forecast to rise this year both because Americans are buying more goods and because prices have climbed, reflecting the dollar's decline and higher fuel costs for transportation, the report said. The dollar has been falling sharply against the euro, for example, putting upward pressure on the prices of European goods.
The increase in farm imports was broad, but a few types of goods stood out.
Beef, for example, is among the fastest-growing food imports, rising 47 percent in value and 23 percent in volume in the 2004 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, compared with the prior year, the report said. Beef imports are projected to rise by $300 million, to $3.8 billion, this year, largely because of higher prices.
Red-meat imports in general have risen in recent years, to around 1.9 million tons in fiscal 2004 from 1.7 million in 2000. Their value surged to $5.5 billion from $3.7 billion in the same period. Wine imports have climbed steadily in the past four years, to 6.5 million tons worth $3.3 billion in 2004, up from 5 million tons worth $2.2 billion in 2000. Beer imports have floated upward as well in the same period, along with steadily rising volumes and sales of cheese, sugar, fruit and vegetables.
Some imports have declined or leveled off in recent years. Americans imported 4.5 million tons of bananas last year, down from 4.8 million in 2000, although the total value remained roughly unchanged. Imports of coffee and related products slipped to 1.4 million tons last year from 1.5 million in 2000, while the value dropped to $2.2 billion from $2.9 billion.
The weaker dollar, which makes U.S. products relatively cheaper on world markets, should slow the growth of imports and help boost exports, the report said.
But Gardner said he was surprised the dollar's decline hasn't done more to shift the trade balance in favor of American goods. "The lesson of the weak dollar is how little difference it's making," he said. "Imports are more expensive, but we're buying them anyway."
Staff writer Paul Blustein contributed to this report. |
