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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59695)	1/30/2005 11:03:30 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 74559

>>(b) whatever Chinese state subsidies (towards securing employment for Wang3Cups) disguised as business loans, in substance, in some sense, can be compared to the subsidies in the US by the Fed and the Fiscal authorities and GSEs to J6P, disguised as refinancings;<< Exactly. I translated an old article by Fan Gang, talking about the bad debt of China's state banks and the national debt of China should be considered together. So those who are screaming that China's banking system will collapse would hardly get their prediction fulfilled<g> Here is the article. Message 20988556

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59695)	1/30/2005 11:23:37 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Default, Dissipation, Dissolution, Deflation, Depression. Also other words, such as Inflation, Confiscation, Redistribution, Stagflation, etc.> Jay, that sounds like a LOT of fun. But which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Deflation, inflation or stagflation? I suppose inflation comes first because that has already come and been coming for a century as the US$ has whittled away, counteracted by the bigger deflation of other things such as cyberspace, which cost vast sums 40 years ago [just to buy one IBM computer which was not as good as my $10 calculator] but now is nearly free, and in any event, not much more than a few good bottles of wine. Not to mention cars, which cost years of work [or lifetimes] but now cost a few more bottles of wine. Buildings are cheaper too. I used to labour on scaffolding, messing around with reinforced concrete, taking years to build a low-grade building. Now they soar much higher and take many fewer hours and not many lives lost to build much swankier accommodations. But maybe you meant we'll enter a hyperinflation first, like the excellent French example from long ago. Or maybe a deflation first? Or stagflation? The hunt for deflation is not going any better than the hunt for WMDs in Iraq. Message 20574774 So far, Uncle Al KBE is sticking to the script I've been expecting since May 1999, though he certainly takes a longgggg time to make it happen. I thought 2 years would have done a lot more that the last 6 years. SIX YEARS!! That's ridiculous. The 2001 Great Financial Collapse is still to arrive too and it's getting long in the tooth. October came and went [you had expected the end of the world by then]. Meanwhile, my pay rate keeps rising while everyone on Earth seems to be shorting the US$, from $ill Gates, to Warren Buffett and every man and his dog. I am getting several Happy Meals a month now, and more to come next week after the fed meeting. I am hoping for 0.5% to really rev things up a bit. Yummmy. Everyone is betting against the fed. I'm with Big Al! Confiscation and redistribution are nothing new - we live with that all day every day in New Zealand, run by Helengrad. Though I understand you meant in larger chunks and faster. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59695)	1/31/2005 5:13:45 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>... the standard of living in China is mathmatically improving, and a lot of infrastructure is becoming IS, and hopefully they can switch to becoming their own customers ...<< Sounds reasonable. That's been my hope all along. So that light in the tunnel, I see app...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59695)	1/31/2005 6:04:13 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Jay, instead of D's, a flip! The hamburger is cooked underneath; people are seeing the raw upper side. I, instead of D's, see a flip: hamburger's flipped and voila! Cooked up and raw hamburger is down. This flip, is the allocation of capital for developing countries resulting in purchasing power and market for overcapacity industry. There'll be less OECD people holidaying. Less charter flights and cars being used longer in developed countries... Very very little impact there. Just losing a little fat and the freed capital will make wonders in the Philippines of this world. Benefit added: when those savages unshaved and wearing head dresses, who terrify MQ nights, see la plata doing what is supposed to do -serving as capital investment- and the resulting India boom, they will re-think their commitment to hit their head on the soil to go to heaven and want to go middle class. It hasn’t failed ANYWHERE! Granted, it's not going to happen tomorrow, but it is the point B, in the future, from the point A where we are today. We know where A is. I know where B is going to be; just to fill in the blanks between A and B.