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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (4484)	1/31/2005 11:17:52 AM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

This is Terry's Weekly QQQQ analysis which he emailed to me late last night: QQQQ clearly remains in a solid long-term uptrend following the stabilization on a big surge in supportive volume in mid-2002: themarketwind.com The medium-term trend is targeting the lower BB rail: themarketwind.com But the surge in volume (supportive volume) in the last 3 or 4 weeks is more consistent with a momentary pause, and a temporary reversal to the upside, and a likely pivot is the middle of the BBs (20 sma). That would just about coincide with overhead at about $38 that has consistently proven to be tough ground for QQQQ over the last year, and would also represent a significant encroachment into the first of a series of bearish power candles overhead. These too will act to stop QQQQ's advance. On the daily chart, you can see this point would also coincide with gap resistance, with the power candlesticks above offering further resistance. 139.142.147.218 So: I think we are in for a short-term relief rally to $38, then further correction to test the Jan. 24 lows, and probably the lower BB rail (which will end up being close to that low; probably about $36.30). Market internals are consistent with short-term upside, but are gathering themselves for further downside soon. Regression channel shows pretty much the same downside target: 139.142.147.218 Stochastics have been in the extreme oversold zone for at least 3 weeks now, which is about as long as they usually stay there. Oil futures look determined to correct back to $45 or slightly below (bullish power candle support and chart support there): futuresource.com Even the wimpy dollar is holding its own now: futuresource.com The mini Naz futures are trading bullishly now as well. Note the most recent candle: futuresource.com The intraday chart shows one big supportive volume spike that stopped the decline cold at about 11:20 am, then another at about 3:30 pm that sparked the EOD rally: themarketwind.com The whole picture looks most consistent with an initial gap up, then a mid-morning correction that will find buyers to push the index higher in the post-lunch session. That morning volume spike is the first indication we've seen that the medium-term correction momentum is waning. I think we'll see this correction end sooner rather than later, probably within the next 2 - 3 weeks, particularly if we see more volume spikes like that. Conclusion: Short term uptrend into the danger zone at about $38, then resumption of the medium term correction back to the lower BB and the January 24 lows. Terry