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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (25603)	1/31/2005 2:17:09 PM
From: steve kammerer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"4. They have a completely out of control fiscal deficit, and government debt load (approaching 200% of GDP). The JGB is the most manipulated Bubble on the planet.' That's scary. To put it into perspective, what is the US government debt as a % of US GDP

To: russwinter who wrote (25603)	1/31/2005 5:08:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

re: 1. yes, it does make sense that MOF will be "last one standing". but they've been doing it for 40 years so what's new. but if their Clownbuck position blows up, then that means JPY rises, not falls. this would be very deflationary since their capital stock would be priced out of world markets. hence MOF operations must continue to maintain status quo. who knows how this ends? 2. yes, they print more money. but if i understand correctly, sterilization is NOT inflationary, since the money is funded from tax revenues. however, only part of the USD support is sterilized. 3. their economy certainly has its artificial elements. one example is that Japan actually consumes more cement than the entire United States, in order to support their public works pork boondoggles. but, while they give us a good run for our money, i don't think their economy is as artificial as ours, when one considers our economy is mainly consumption of useless items and overpriced real estate, coupled with a military welfare program and a prison welfare program and a corporate welfare program, along with a regular welfare program; and tech Ponzi schemes; and lawyers making useless lawsuits; and overpriced healthcare. 4. They have a completely out of control fiscal deficit, and government debt load (approaching 200% of GDP). IIRC Japanese government debt is actually much worse--i thought it was like 500-600% of GDP. that is why Moody's rated them lower than Botswana. or maybe it is just 5-6x US debt/GDP. 5. hey, Japanese people save and their government has taught them to moderate consumption on the individual level. the complete opposite lessons of our government.