To: RetiredNow who wrote (216724 ) 2/1/2005 10:50:26 AM From: Taro Respond to of 1571690 Posted on Tue, Feb. 01, 2005 CONFLICT IN IRAQ U.S., Iraq hope to use election to stop strife Diplomats and military analysts said the election in Iraq may be the moment for politicians to negotiate with insurgents, dividing those who want political power from those whose stance is more nihilistic. BY ALISSA J. RUBIN Los Angeles Times Service BAGHDAD - After strong turnout in Sunday's vote and fewer casualties than many expected, Iraqi and American authorities are looking for new ways to drain the insurgency's energy and capitalize on momentum from the election. U.S. officials said Monday that insurgents launched 260 attacks on election day, almost an unprecedented number, but only a fraction were deadly. Thirty-three Iraqis and one American died in the assaults, which also killed 31 insurgents. 'The election and the turnout send a message to the insurgency. The Iraqi people ignored the insurgents' moral argument that the elections weren't possible under occupation, and they disregarded the insurgents' strategic argument that people would be stopped from getting to the polls by attacks,'' said Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Officials credited the extraordinary security measures that brought much of the country to a halt. Car traffic was all but prohibited; strict curfews were imposed, and vacations were canceled for Iraqi security organizations. U.S.-led forces were deployed near polling places, ready to intervene. While apparently effective for a single day, diplomats and military analysts say such measures can't be sustained. Instead, they say, this may be the moment for politicians to negotiate with insurgents, dividing those who want political power from those whose stance is more nihilistic. It may also be useful to ask the Iraqi public to rally against intimidation, they say. `POLITICAL SETTLEMENT' 'The government should use this [election] to turn around and say to the insurgency, `The only way to settle this is a political settlement,' '' Dodge said. ``The insurgency cannot be beaten with an outright military assault.'' Still, it will be difficult for the Iraqi government to build on Sunday's energy. Insurgents are well armed and unlikely to give up easily. Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said that although the election dealt the insurgents a major blow, ``there will still be some acts of violence.'' Monday, three Marines were killed in action south of Baghdad, the military reported, and insurgents tried to shell the government center in Ramadi, a city west of Baghdad where violence has been intense. Rebels also claimed to be responsible for bringing down a British C-130 plane Sunday, killing 10 military personnel. The government in London has not determined the cause of the crash, but several military experts said the plane appeared to have been downed by hostile fire, based on the distribution of debris. Data provided by U.S. officials indicate that insurgents spared no effort to disrupt Sunday's polling. The number of attacks, 260, was four to five times that of a typical day and included 103 attacks on polling sites. The dead included eight members of Iraqi security forces, one U.S. soldier and 25 Iraqi civilians. SUICIDE BOMBERS There were at least eight suicide attacks, with all but one involving assailants wearing explosive belts. The use of such a large number of suicide bombers to kill a relatively small number of Iraqis suggests that insurgents were unable to surmount Iraqi security forces' measures to block bombers. ''What is significant about the attacks is their low lethality,'' said a U.S. diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. ``There were no polling stations seized, no election officers captured, no polling stations torched.'' U.S. officials praised the Iraqi security forces' efforts but cautioned that much work remains to make them self-sufficient and capable of routinely deterring attacks. ''You can't read all too much into this,'' the diplomat said. ``But what you can read into it is that [the security forces] were on this day at that time and place; these people were consistently motivated.'' Early results from the election had not yet been announced Monday. Local polling stations worked through the night to count ballots, and by Monday afternoon the count at all 5,200 stations nationwide was complete, The Associated Press reported. Local centers were forwarding tally sheets and ballots to Baghdad, where vote totals will be compiled with the aid of computers and announced. The turnout was highest in areas home to Shiite Muslims and Kurds and lowest in areas populated by Sunni Arabs, particularly north and west of the capital. James Dobbins, a former U.S. ambassador who specializes in post-conflict situations, said the anti-insurgency effort depends on maximizing Sunni Arab representation in the new government. Although it may be impossible to co-opt many insurgents, he believes the government can win the support of those who back the rebellion but haven't taken up arms.