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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (22630)	2/1/2005 10:35:54 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

<You completely ignore the affects of a housing crash and conclude that inflation will occur as housing and the stock market crashes. Not likely.> Should we be watching Great Britain and Australia to see if a housing downturn/collapse leads to a depression? Housing downturn appears to be underway but the stock market is holding strong. Isn't it possible for the housing bubble in the US to deflate along the coasts, crash in a few property types in areas with excess speculation and appreciate in much of the midwest while the stock market and economy stagflates along like in the 70's with no true debt cleansing taking place? Perhaps a true cleansing and deflation/depression won't take place unless the long end rises several percentage points first which you say has zero chance of happening if I recall .

To: mishedlo who wrote (22630)	2/2/2005 5:23:55 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

we have been in disinflation ever since interest rates peaked at 18% I know this is an argument nobody is going to win with you :-) But still, have you slept through the last two years? From what I recall, inflation dived from about mid-2001 to the end of 2002, with core PPI briefly touching negative territory, and throughout 2003 and 2004, it has been INCREASING.