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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockDung who wrote (90543)	2/2/2005 12:07:39 AM
From: olivier asser	Respond to of 122087

Even Cramer touting GOOG Then I'm sure we'll see 300 tomorrow...LOL.

To: StockDung who wrote (90543)	2/2/2005 12:38:02 AM
From: olivier asser	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

On CNBC today the analyst they had said 226 was fair value. 210 a/h. Here are the current investment bank ratings on Google, according to Briefing.com, a respected record-keeper of recs (targets in parentheses): - Lehman: Equal Weight (190) - Merrill: Neutral - BOA: Neutral (158) - Goldman: Outperform - CSFB: Outperform (225) - UBS: Reduce (160) These are the IB recs since November. I for one am wondering why GOOG didn't announce a stock split today. Also, the float isn't even clearly known, but it looks like on 2/14 the float is going to roughly increase by 4 times, though these figures aren't clear at all, which is troublesome. Before GOOG spiked 20 a/h, at the close of c. 192 its P/E was 230, vs. Warren Buffett's holdings which are generally between 12 and 15, in line with the historical average. More than 55% of the stock is held by insiders. OK, they're billionaires, but compare that to EBAY, the other famous Net stock: 23.5% held by insiders. That's less than half as much and EBAY just crashed 35%. An astute analyst on the CC asked GOOG's founders if they have any other business model aside from click through advertising revenues and the answer was less than impressive. GOOG did not spend much time talking about competitors except to say they had no chance. But Bill Gates just said at Davos that he and MSFTY were going to challenge GOOG, his words were they were working on search that would make GOOG look like child's play. GOOG said about talent incentives with 4-year vested stock of $12 mill awarded last qtr; I wonder if GOOG can compete with MSFT's tens of billions of dollars in cash on hand to lure people away. On Valentine's Day, 177 million shares are going to be unlocked. At current prices, that's stock available for sale worth more than $35 billion. But you and others say that won't affect the price. I would maybe believe that if Wall Street had an interest in selling those shares, but GOOG obviously has done things its own way, meaning they'll likely not pay fees to IB's to sell, try to sell them on their own. We'll see. GOOG analyst meeting on 2/9 and lock up on I believe 2/15 177 million shares are freed up. These are insider shares and subject to restrictions. Everyone and there brother will think GOOG will crash because of this selling preasure. As the big firms are recommending GOOG, they will trample anyone that thinks stock will dump because of a little insider selling.