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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59872)	2/2/2005 3:46:40 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay/Spot: Lets say China collapse: How long the collapse lasts? One month? one year? Collapses today are short lived. Asia's lasted 36 months. Argentina collapse lasted, 24 months. Before collapses were really long lived. LATAM took a decade to come back again. But there won't be any collapse: The tendency is for capital to spread evenly. If China is concentrating it, the tendency is to spread from there. Can't hog it. China hogging capital is as bad as it is for the US, Europe and Japan. Once there is too much of it, it starts being misused. Once it tries to go away, people feel the outwards pull and start using it more wisely and out flow reassert itself. Hence a post-Keynesian regime makes sure that capital percolates every nook and cranny of the world’s economy, thus avoiding collapse. China won't collapse because those millions of newly urbanites are not going to pack their bags and head back to the rice field. The only thing that happens is the country to hit its head on the ceiling as it grows too fast and some parts of the construction are neglected. It won’t collapse because this means Balkanization. The capitalist revolution in China was intended to avoid it doing a USSR split.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (59872)	2/2/2005 3:58:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<There are currently some issues> Sorry, too vague. Which? Please fill in the blanks and lets diggest them. I was there: Asia meltdown Causes 1)Overvalued currencies 2)Overcapacity in the same type of production 3)Lousy governments and financial policies 4)Too much investment in real estate because capital couldn't be invested in infrastructure (roads, harbors, public transport, telecoms 5)Incompetent work force couldn't cope with the growth 6) Believed in their own propaganda You are there: China meltdown Causes 1) 2)Capital invested in the same type of production=no profits (?) 3) 4) 5)Subsidies to SOE (?) 6)Too slow to push oytwards and diversify from US market (?)