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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (22751)	2/3/2005 9:01:25 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Just look overseas for the possible answer. Isn't the yield curve already flat in UK and Australia with housing already falling yet the stock market is at a 2.5 year high in UK and all time high in Australia? Look for a major housing downturn in our coastal bubble areas and certain oversupplied property types to crash within many of those markets in US. Will it be enough to destroy money and credit (without a major backup in long rates and adjustment to stock P/E and real estate cap rates) and lead us into a depression? Highly doubtful from my perspective. What % downs do they require in OZ? Are they granting 125% mortgages in OZ or the UK? Is housing the only thing keeping the economy going in OZ? Are their credit standards anywhere close to as loose as ours? From my perspective you are wrong. Mish