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To: RealMuLan who wrote (22787)2/3/2005 11:56:38 AM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
The Price of Government
Getting the Results We Need
in an Age of Permanent Fiscal Crisis

By DAVID OSBORNE and PETER HUTCHINSON

Biscally speaking, the state of our union is a train wreck in the making, write the authors of The Price of Government: Getting the Results We Need in an Age of Permanent Fiscal Crisis. Consider these disturbing numbers:

• The federal deficit is heading for a record. If trends continue, President Bush’s plan to make most of his tax cuts permanent would increase the national debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade — a 60 percent increase in one decade — creating a future obligation of $37,450 for every living American.

• By the year 2030, if current levels of spending and taxation continue, the entire federal budget will be consumed by Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the national debt.

• In 2002, 38 states cut their budgets by nearly $13.7 billion. In 2003, 40 states — the most ever on record-cut another $11.8 billion. Kentucky and Washington released prison inmates. Texas cut 257,000 children from its health care rolls. Many districts closed down schools.
About the Authors
David Osborne is the co-author, with Ted Gaebler, of Reinventing Government, which became a national bestseller. He is also the author of Laboratories for Democracy and co-author of Banishing Bureaucracy and The Reinventor’s Fieldbook. A senior partner of the Public Strategies Group, he has served as an advisor or consultant to Vice President Al Gore, governors, mayors and city managers nationwide, and to public leaders around the world. He has written for Governing, The Atlantic, The New York Times Magazine, Harper’s and many other publications. He lives in Essex, Massachusetts.

Peter Hutchinson is a founder and President of the Public Strategies Group in St. Paul, Minnesota. He previously served as vice president of the Dayton Hudson Corp. (now Target Corp.), commissioner of finance in Minnesota and superintendent of schools in Minneapolis. As a management and turnaround consultant, he has advised governors and their administrations in Washington State, Minnesota, New York and Iowa, as well as cities, counties and school districts throughout the United States and internationally. He lives in Minneapolis.

What’s wrong with this picture? In The Price of Government, David Osborne, acclaimed author of the best-selling Reinventing Government, and Peter Hutchinson, a consultant and former Minnesota finance commissioner, describe what they believe public officials are doing wrong when it comes to matters of budgeting and spending and offer alternatives, starting with a fundamentally new approach they call “Budgeting for Outcomes.”

The authors also say that the presidential campaign so far has ignored the critical debate about the federal deficit because the solutions are too painful — and that both candidates are avoiding their role as leaders.

Eschewing quick fixes, The Price of Government exposes what the authors say is the fundamental flaw in the traditional approach to the preparation of public-sector budgets — a focus on what we cut, while ignoring what we hold on to. Instead, the authors propose a radically different approach to budgeting, turning the focus from what we cut to what we keep. Budgeting for Outcomes offers public servants at all levels of government a prescription for squeezing the maximum value out of every tax dollar collected.

It’s time, the authors say, to ditch the worry-about-it-tomorrow approach to budgeting now practiced by many municipal, county and state governments — and on Capitol Hill as well. Politicians, they contend, have become too adept at employing what Osborne and Hutchinson call the “seven deadly deceptions” as they work to balance their budgets (a requirement for all but the federal government):

• Rob Peter to pay Paul: use “off-budget” funds to make up for general fund shortfalls.

• Use accounting tricks to lie about spending or revenue: pretend that money you expect to receive early next year will actually come in late this year.

• Borrow: California has taken this daring feat to unprecedented heights with the passage of back-to-back $10- and $15-billion bond issues to balance a budget and pay off old debt with new.

• Sell off assets: sell surplus buildings, then use the proceeds to patch the operating budget by treating the real estate gains as “normal” revenue.

• Make something up: Reagan’s budget director David Stockman projected out of thin air a $28 billion federal surplus by 1986; in fact, the largest deficits following World War II soon followed.

• Nickel and dime employees: Missouri’s governor last year ordered every other light bulb in government buildings to be unscrewed.

• Delay maintenance and replacement of assets (and rely on hope): Alaska deferred repairs and maintenance on state office building elevators in Juneau for so long that the majority are inoperable.

The authors show policy makers and financial managers how to get a grip on the problem by determining the price of government (what percent of personal income citizens are willing to pay in taxes, fees, and charges), agreeing on the outcomes most important to citizens and setting the price to deliver each one. Osborne and Hutchinson provide targeted tools and strategies for leaders who want to master the politics of reinvention, with cogent examples of Budgeting for Outcomes and smart government in action.

• Read the excerpt
governing.com
governing.com



To: RealMuLan who wrote (22787)2/3/2005 12:52:06 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
China: The Costs of Using -- Or Not Using -- Alternative Fuel

stratfor.biz
Feb 02, 2005

Summary

China's Shenhua Group has partnered with U.S. company Headwaters Inc. to build a coal liquefaction plant, which will process coal into gasoline and diesel fuel. The plant is experimental and costly, but China is willing to make the investment to lessen the country's dependence on foreign oil. For an investment in China's long-term fuel supply, there is no time like the present -- when the country is not in a financial crisis.

Analysis

Production is expected to start this year at a coal liquefaction plant built by the Shenhua Group, China's largest coal company, and U.S. firm Headwaters Inc. As per the companies' agreement signed in June 2002, Shenhua Group put up the money for the $3.3 billion plant built in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, while Headwaters Inc. provided the catalyst technology to convert coal into gasoline and diesel fuel.

China sees this investment in coal liquefaction technology as imperative. The country was the world's third-largest oil consumer until 2004, but growing demand has pushed it into second place, behind the United States. With China's economy not in crisis, the time is ripe for investment in alternative energy technology that could provide more long-term economic stability and less long-term dependence on foreign fuels.

Construction of the coal liquefaction plant's infrastructure is nearly complete. Once it goes online, the facility is expected to produce 1 million tons of gasoline and diesel fuel a year. Until the experimental liquefaction process's success is determined, the project's second phase -- anticipated to bring total investment to $7.3 billion and include two more plants to be built in Yunnan and Heilongjiang provinces -- has been postponed. Should production continue according to plan, China will open four more production lines by 2008. Eventually, China hopes its coal liquefaction plants will produce 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline and diesel fuel.

The coal liquefaction process breaks coal down into smaller molecules that are enriched with hydrogen to produce oil, which can then be refined into gasoline and diesel products. This process is extremely expensive, and in order to make the technology economically profitable, the price of oil must remain above $32 per barrel -- which the New York Mercantile Exchange futures index projects will be the case for the next 60 months. However, there is still much debate over whether oil prices will drop to more traditional levels of around $20 per barrel once the political and military situations in the Middle East are more stable and refining imbalances are more resolved.

China spends about $100 billion annually on oil imports, and for every $1-per-barrel increase in the price of oil, China's total import costs rise by about $1.6 billion a year. Therefore, while China is not facing any monetary crises in the short term, the experimental, expensive coal liquefaction technology seems like an investment in China's long-term ability to manufacture its own fuel -- an ability that could lend some stability to the country's economy while weaning China from imported oil.

Still, the Chinese are banking on the risky assumption that oil prices will remain above the break-even point of $32 per barrel and liquefaction will remain an economically viable option throughout a five-year projection. It costs about $25 per barrel to produce one ton of coal-liquefied oil, with 3 to 5 tons of coal used in the production. To compare, a project of similar scale upgrading tar sands (bitumen) to oil costs $970 million to produce 50,000 bpd. All told, the $7.3 billion coal liquefaction project is approximately seven times as expensive as bitumen refining.

The cost of China's coal liquefaction plants could be reduced by using domestically made equipment. About 60 percent of the equipment in the first phase of the plant's construction is domestically made; that figure is expected to increase to 80 percent when the second phase starts.