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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (20589)	2/3/2005 5:14:53 PM
From: Carl Worth	Respond to of 78704

homebuilders: it's only a matter of time until the stocks go down, at least for a while, but where from, and where to? the doomsayers have been predicting the "bubble burst" for 4 or 5 years, maybe longer SPF, as an example, is up 5 fold in that time and currently trades at 72 with over 30 bucks in tangible book value and over 10 bucks in earning power...is it more likely to hit 90 or 50 first? i will keep my calls for a while and perhaps convert them to shares before they expire, since i think 90 is more likely...time will tell

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (20589)	2/9/2005 8:01:58 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

KKD: Thanks, hoyasaxa and E_K_S for replies. Seems to me I've invested in doughnut company stocks at least a couple of times and have lost money. Can't remember the stock, maybe not Dunkin' Donuts - that's now part of Allied Domecq (The ADR is AED.) Point is that doughnut stocks can be dangerous, and KKD might be very much so. It's somewhat about saturation - - the health issues with saturated fats -the diet issues with people getting saturated on empty calories -the saturated distribution channels (with KKD losing its cachet as a special niche product - i.e. the product being distributed by many 3rd parties now, e.g. Albertson's grocery stores) - the oversaturation of stores. Media is saying KKD may not have enough cash it needs to close underperforming stores and cannot borrow any more money under their latest loan agreements. A solution may be bankruptcy or stock dilution, it is being reported. -------- Goldman Sachs Asset Management filled today that they hold 5.3% of the common. I take that as a vote of confidence in the new KKD management team. May turn out to be a misguided vote though -g-. OTOH, with their backs against the wall, maybe KKD can work through these difficult times. I've taken just a VERY few shares @$7.15 today.