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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (25853)2/4/2005 1:01:54 PM
From: ild  Respond to of 110194
 
Date: Fri Feb 04 2005 12:20
trotsky (strat@defending the dollar) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
there is absolutely no guarantee that the currency CAN be defended by higher rates. it is the conventional expectation, but with the elephant in the room ( in the form of a nearly $5 trillion foreign held dollar claims net long position that grows by $2 billion EVERY SINGLE DAY ) not going away anytime soon, the opposite could just as well happen.
history is replete with currencies that collapsed concurrently with soaring interest rates...most recently the Argentine peso ,and in the late 90's, just about every Asian currency outside the non-convertible Yuan one can think of, to name a few examples.
once one has banana-republic type economic imbalances besetting an economy, keeping faith in the currency alive is an increasingly difficult task. the only saving grace as far as i can tell is that the competition isn't much better.



To: ild who wrote (25853)2/4/2005 1:21:26 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 110194
 
to it seems as an orchestrated USD buying by several CB's before the G-7 meeting were India and China are also participating.

As to the USD it has it's 5th I think in a corrective move