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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (38992)	2/6/2005 5:21:31 PM
From: buckbldr	Respond to of 206326

stockcharts.com[h,a]dacayyay[pb30!b20!f][vc60][iut!Ua12,26,9!Uc20]&pref=G stockcharts.com[h,a]dacayiay[pb30!b20!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lc20]&pref=G jim p, thanks for your prompt response to my question re: the aberrant behaviour of PTEN relative to its driller peers this past Friday. I couldn't come back with an answering post then because of the 5 post/day limit for us free loaders on SI, sorry. Maybe I haven't been a careful enough observer over the past 7+ yrs of actively investing/trading in the drillers, but I thought I had observed that they "tend" to move in concert with the group lately (either on-shore or off-shore, and sometimes all together) during a day's session, unless there's some selective news driven event to break this pattern. Friday, PTEN seemed to be dwelling in its own world, oblivious to what NBR, GW, NE, ESV, (and somewhat less so with RIG), were doing price-wise...I had double loaded into PTEN early because it was lagging the others, and its chart was evolving toward a more bullish profile, so that an intra-day long position should yield a 1.5 to 2% gain, since the others were achieving that target already. Now considering the ST technical profile, and a 2/17? probable positive earnings report following NBR's positive one, and NO apparent adverse news event to dispute these indicators, I was thoroughly convinced going intra-day long was a prudent decision. In hindsight, looking at an intra-day chart, it's obvious that an early buy in the 20.60-20.70 range was an obvious "oops". At mid-day I was as stressed out as I have ever been over my "career" in trading (not good, at my age!), so, I turned to you guys for some explanation if one was to be had. Yours contained several valid points (I respectfully question a couple of them), however I don't find they addressed the reason for PTEN's being the sole bad actor Friday. The above 2 charts display the amazingly similar patterns of the OSX and PTEN recently. I use the crossover of the 20 over 30 day MA as an important leading indicator of potential up-trends in price...see the sizable (8.5%) gain made by OSX from this cross-over about 9/13 to 10/11...then after extended horizontal moves and 4 attempts to significantly break that 10/11 high..we see on #5 a strong breakout, and voila!...another 20 over 30 crossover along with it on 2/1. And we still have some room to go to a 140- 145 OSX. Now look at PTEN...spooky similarities to the OSX(pretty obvious they move in harmony, no?)...PTEN has a 20-30 crossover on 9/13 followed by a strong upmove...then 4 attempts at exceeding the 20.45 high...price is moving up w/strength accompanied by - voila!...the birth of another 20 over 30 crossover only a couple of days later than OSX's was. Does this prove your interpretation was wrong? Of course not...but, it sure casts doubt on your assumptions regarding the near bearish outlook of PTEN based upon those failed attempts to exceed that 20.45(not 12.45) high (which btw, PTEN had exceeded w/ a close at 20.57 on Thurs. The volume? Seems it was at least average...until Fri. Your advice about Fidelity is well taken, and I'm watching for it carefully...however I just don't see them leaning strongly to starting to dump in the face of NG and CL prices remaining so strong, and apparently supply/demand comparisons showing such favorable developments. The ride back down does always come, but sometimes it's somewhat later, especially when "this time, it's different" >>GGG<<< I'd judge at the moment, he who shorts now is the bigger fool than that stubborn long is. I'm inclined to agree with Q and Frank that we may see a near and short term 3-4 days dip due to the pending warm spell. But, if the colder returns, I feel we will see a return to this maybe so bullish trend. Again, I sincerely thank you for your courteous response. Buck