Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rich evans who wrote (22912)	2/4/2005 7:30:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I went to the BLS site Mish posted earlier today. The household survey shows a lot more jobs created or existing since the trough in Nov 2001 then the payroll survey. The Demand for housing/retail etc would indicate that people are getting money from somewhere. That can't just be borrowing it one would think. So I think you are right, John that their must be a lot of all the books and other small business/jobs existing that are not being measured by the payroll survey. At least on my own recent remodel this seemed to be the case. What do our experts on this thread think? Rich Rich, here is what I think: Message 21018954 Let me expound on that for a second thought. We did indeed create jobs. Look at all the McDonalds, Walmarts, Targets, and Home Depots going up all over the place. Find new suburban sprawl and you will find jobs: mostly low end retail jobs but there will be some new buyers, accoutants, and managers etc in the mix. There certainly lots of trade jobs created: plumbing, carpet laying, home decorating etc etc etc. Some of those jobs probaly pay very well too. I just doubt there are all that many new BUSINESSES out there. I contend that most of those jobs are pure nonsense i.e. selling stuff on Ebay and calling it a job, getting involved in multi-level marketing and calling that a job, becomming a financial planner and calling that a job, and getting a real estate license and calling that a job. No doubt SOME of those people will indeed do well, but %wise I would guess 1-5% at most. In the end, people need money and just take what they can get: a job at Home Deopt or Walmart. Because those jobs are not paying waht people used to make tahy are treating their house as an ATM and doing round after round of cash out refis to support consumption. The party ends in one of several ways. 1) Home prices stop rising 2) Credit standards tighten 3) The home building boom comes to a screetching halt 4) Consumers just give up IMO all of those will happen, perhaps 4 will be forced. #3 is particularly bad because where are new jobs going to come from when Walmarts stop going up all over the place and trade people are laid off from their homebuilding jobs. That's when the shit hits the fan. Mish