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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (60015)	2/5/2005 5:53:21 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

El Kab, I expect something much more interesting before 2029. If 320 metre diameter bolides are every 1300 years, and that's 850 megatons worth, then I expect half the mass to be about every 500 years and quarter the mass every 200 years and an eighth the mass every 100 years. Give or take the actual distribution of sizes and a century or three. An eighth the mass would still give 100 megatons, which is a significant energy input if added to the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean [the biggest target on Earth] and would make a very substantial tsunami. Thanks for that. I don't think I'll stay up to see a dim star. I suppose Google has the actual distribution of Earth impact sizes over the past 100 years or so, which could be extrapolated up to bigger objects. Mqurice