Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (25894)	2/5/2005 7:15:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

what I don't understand in her piece is how she can predict lower rates while the asian's cut back on their purchases of treasuries. the two don't go together. we (the US) don't have enough savings to buy our treasuries and keep rates low. This has been explained many times. Demand in the US will pick up. There will be a mad rush out of agencies and crap like that into treasuries if and when housing blows up. It is a similar statement to that affect that I made that caused Lambeth-Palace to practically call me nuts. I do not remember his precise wording but it set me off. I blasted him and unfortunately he has hardly posted since then. Treasury rates are not low solely because of Japan. Quite frankly no one can manipulate a market as big as that for this long. Perhaps they added 1/4 point or so to the 10 yr. Make it 1/2 if you insist but I doubt it. But if Asia pulls back and US demand picks up rates are headed lower not higher. There is enormous pent up US demand for treasuries IMO. Japan stopped intervening in the US$ and the US$ did not suddenly fall to pieces. Why should treasuries fall to pieces if Japan stopped buying those. Quite frankly, I think fears that they will stop buying treasuries might be overblown in the first place. But IF they drop, I expect US demand to pick up. Perhaps Heinz and I are the only two people in the world that believe this. Mish