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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (25902)	2/6/2005 11:36:46 AM
From: dpl	Respond to of 110194

"Why do you say that? Japan deflated all the way down to 0%. You are making a statement about absolute rates that does not appear to have a basis in fact." Mish,this was AFTER the bubble popped.0% rates did not pop their RE bubble. David

To: mishedlo who wrote (25902)	2/6/2005 12:53:07 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You missed my point. Rates will go down when the bubble bursts, but rates are still far too low to burst the bubble IMHO. Japanese rates did not collapse until AFTER their bubble imploded..

To: mishedlo who wrote (25902)	2/6/2005 4:30:58 PM
From: Umunhum	Respond to of 110194

<Japan deflated all the way down to 0%.> Is Japan an accurate model? Japan's debt was financed internally whereas 40% plus of the U.S. debt is being financed externally. Is it realistic to think that the external financiers are going to go down with the U.S. Titanic? When the consumers stop spending, the amount of exported dollars recycled into treasuries is going to dissipate. So even if they held on to the debt that they currently own, there is no one left to buy the ever increasing borrowing. When Japan printed money, the bulk of the money stayed in Japan and therefore it held its value whereas America is depending on other nations to continue to believe that the ever increasing dollars are holding their value. I don't see how the two equate.