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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Venditâ„¢ who wrote (4671)2/5/2005 10:31:10 PM
From: Walkingshadow  Respond to of 8752
 
Where's Doug? He'd come up with a good name...

T



To: Venditâ„¢ who wrote (4671)2/5/2005 11:29:45 PM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8752
 
BMET from the watch list looks like it is setting up to be a nice short also.

BMET is overbought, and the BBs have been pierced to the upside and opened up now. No technical sell signals yet, but there is an overhead gap and Power Candle that BMET has partly encroached upon:

139.142.147.218

Also, BMET failed at the 200 ema in December on 4 times normal volume with a big gap down after reporting earnings and forward guidance that were in line with expectations..... go figure, guess the Street was expecting a big upside surprise or something. Got an analyst upgrade on Jan. 12.

Anyway, I always like potential shorts to be in long-term downtrends, defined as trading below the 200 sma, and confirming that with a lower high and a lower low, and preferably with the 200 sma at least starting to slope downwards. That most often indicates a stock that is dead money for a year at least.

Now BMET is on the verge of a bear cross (50 sma/200 sma crossover). The bear cross is the final confirmation, the last nail in the coffin. It is not often that a stock bounces back from a big volume, professional gap failure at the 200 sma followed by a bear cross. Nothing is guaranteed of course, but a bear cross always gives a short position a more favorable risk/reward profile.

Friday's candle was the first thrust above the 200 sma after the failure, has not been confirmed, and could well represent a bull trap, particularly since it comes less than 2 months after the failure:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60]&pref=G

Only 1% of the float is held short, which represents about 1 day's trading volume, so the risk of a short squeeze is minimal. The stock is predominantly institutionally traded and owned; only 8% of the float is held by insiders.

finance.yahoo.com

This one is worth watching and considering further. Failure at the intraday moving averages and a print below $44.29 would be a good short entry IMHO.

T