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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (2181)	2/7/2005 8:28:07 PM
From: bull_derrick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

Yeah, Kodiak, I think we go that far back now. It was 1998 when I first started buying the OSX and lurking those boards. I think it was 3 months of lurking before my first post. Speaking of thinking, I agree with you in a general sort of way. I try to trade on macroeconomic trends more than charts and I tend to be too early. What is plain for me to see, ie that 85 cent gasoline and massive layoffs in the oil patch are unsustainable and that sooner or later the nation is going to get into a pinch for energy, wasn't that plain for the market to see for quite awhile and so there I was-for about 6 months too soon and underwater on the OSX. Now as we know, the story had a very happy ending, but I admit that I see the trend too soon and generally enter too soon. I've tried to adjust, of course, and that's why I wasn't shorting TOL or buying puts when it was 40 or 45 or 50. Is it still too soon? Maybe. Will I make a profit within the next 11 months on the 2006 puts? I think the chances are 75-80% on the 2006 puts and 100% on the 2007 puts.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (2181)	2/7/2005 9:17:21 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 13449

Is this a possible sign of a top in TOL? TOL made the IBD list of highest rated stocks. (Still haven't bought my puts, but getting itchy.)

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (2181)	2/8/2005 5:50:41 AM
From: chowder	Respond to of 13449

One of the things I have learned about the market is that those who don't outperform it on a consistent basis, buy and sell at the wrong times. I have studied many different styles of investing and trading and the one style of trading that consistently outperforms all other trading systems is a style called "trend following." If one is to follow the trend, one must know what that trend is. In looking at TOL, Stan Weinstein would say it's in Stage 2. History says that those who short Stage 2 trends lose money consistently over a period of time. When a stock is in a Stage 2 trend, the high probability trades are to buy the dips, not short the price highs. Why? Because in shorting the price high, and your time frame is more than a few days, the buy the dip crowd is going to wipe out your profits very quickly. The Pristine crowd says that as long as the 20 day moving average is above the 50 day moving average and there is a decent separation between the two, you buy the dips. The 3-5 bar drop off of recent price highs is the most accurate and profitable buy set up that has worked for me. This set up is used best on stocks in a Stage 2 uptrend. If one can correctly identify the trend and the trend is up, the high probability trade is to take a series of trades where the price pulls back a couple of days and sell it when it sets a new price high. A stock like TOL isn't going to go from a Stage 2 uptrend to a Stage 4 downtrend without first going through a Stage 3 consolidation. It's during stage 3 when longer term shorting or put strategies have a higher probability of success. When a stock is in a Stage 4 downtrend, you then sell or short the rallies. It's all a matter of knowing where on the battlefield your troops are deployed to get the best results. Those who fight the trend will have an occasional winner but it isn't a "consistent" way to profit. Successful buy and sell strategies earn consistent profits and avoid big losses or drawdowns. I haven't come across any studies that have shown where shorting in Stage 2 has a high probability of success. Maybe it is so successful that nobody wants to share it, I don't know. If someone has a successful way of beating the market by going against the trend, and doing it consistently, I wish they would publish their entries, price targets and stop losses for us to see. This message board is about sharing successful strategies and my mind is open to that style of trading if it is successful. dabum