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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (26013)	2/8/2005 11:45:24 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Feb 08 2005 11:25 trotsky (the Rand) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as expected, the Rand is weakening further, in light of its weakening fundamental underpinnings ( like the steepening SA yield curve, SA money supply and credit growth, not to mention the trade deficit ) . since a lot of speculative 'hot money' is in the Rand, the slide could easily accelerate, as the exit could quickly become crowded ( compared to the major currencies, liquidity in the Rand is non-existent, so big buy or sell orders tend to move it rapidly ) . how do we know about the speculative money? because the SARB's forex reserves have been rising in spite of a big trade deficit. since the SA miners have been sold down in a willy-nilly liquidation panic, this changing Rand environment could translate into big gains for contrarians daring to venture into this sub sector. once the next cyclical up leg in the bull market begins, there will probably once again be a change of leadership ( leadership has rotated thrice already ) . this time the SA mines may well lead the charge.