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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elmatador who wrote (60188)2/8/2005 8:25:40 AM
From: macavity  Respond to of 74559
 
LOl!

The short-dollar/Reflation trade has been crowded for the past 12-18 months.

Not saying it cant/wont continue - just saying that it needs to at least test a few people's convictions.

Hell! Bill Gates is short the dollar. Why? Everyone is betting on it. Where was he in the early 90s when USD was at 85?
Everyone is a short dollar trader now.

I think we have seen the Reflation Trade Cyclical top - but who knows? Not me!

For now, methinks that EURUSD has a meeting with its 55wk EMA ~ 1.25/26. We should get a good bounce soon.

Last friday was picture-perfect.
Bad dollar news, dollar falls, dollar rallies and follows-through.
It is not the news it is the reaction to the news, and right now the USD is now shaking off bad news.

$HUI has been playing up for the last 9 months.
This is the most geared asset class to dollar (monetary) devaluation, and this failed to confirm its 2004 highs.

For the dollar - Buy the dips!

-macavity