Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (7123)	2/17/2005 5:29:16 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Message 21032815 I posted in this regard only days ago. No takers, though.

To: macavity who wrote (7123)	3/27/2005 5:59:43 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Rally in LT yields is just about done. I have managed to sit on my hands for this entire bond-selloff. This has been good - it has gone a lot further than I imagined. Still 30Y yields have still not retraced half the decline from Jun2004. They are hovering around the 1/3 or 38% point. We are now at the 55wkEMA, and from a yield perspective are now overbought on an intermediate (weekly) and short term (daily) view. I try to never catch a falling knife and wait patiently for a break, but the LT trend remains bearish for yields - quarterly charts point down and 1 yr EMAs are downward sloping. A break of last weeks lows @ $TYX<4.77 and this rally is over. We may get a retest after, but that dragonfly doji from Wednesday screams exhaustion. Daily MACD/PPO is about to bearish and the entire rally has been on weakening momentum. Who knows? Not me! macavity

To: macavity who wrote (7123)	5/21/2010 3:12:08 AM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Respond to of 33421

Macavity, this was quite the good call on the bond secular bull market still having gots of life in it. Very nicely done. I was finding it so interesting 4 weeks ago, Bloomberg had an article where Morgan Stanley was forecasting a 5.5% 10 year yield for the end of 2010, Goldman Sachs was at 3.5 or 3.7%. These 2 firms had been the most number one in accuracy in the prior two years according to the Bloomberg article. That same weekend, my Saturday WSJ had a very interesting "bookend" article where PIMCO was saying that hte 30 year secular bull markets was ending and yet BlackRock another of the very largest Money managers felt their were still upside in price the muliyear bond bull market. Obviously, we've seen yields scoot down quick 90 plus basis pionts from the April 5th high of 4.13% down today's intraday low just south of 3.20%. I'm thinking that we're very close to the low in Yield in both price and time that should then hold for into the fall. John