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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20632)	2/8/2005 7:45:16 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78704

ANF, CLE and BHP. CLE is a retailer with zero debt. And the ratios are a bit more forgiving than ANF. I bailed on ANF mid-january and late-january. Economist Magazine has an article in Jan 8 edition concerning Steel Prices and Coke. Outlook for Coke (not the drug or drink) was exceptional. Here's a few clips from the magazine. It cause me to up my investment in BHP last week: Nippon Steel agreed on new prices with BHP $55 per ton old price, $125 per ton new price. "This week, POSCO, from South Korea, made similar deals with BHP, and Rio Tinto, number two in the trade." China just signed 25 year deal with BHP. JFE Steel (japan) agreed to 20% stake in a venture led by BHP... etc etc etc The steel makers haven't been worried about price, "The Steelmakers' real worry recently, however, has been getting the stuff." "The price of these raw materials (coke for the steel makers) rose fast in 2004. They are likely to continue that way in 2005." grommit

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20632)	2/8/2005 11:52:06 PM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 78704

Picked up some KSWS today. I liked the recent report and CEO comments, even though he sold some shares in November (20% down from current price!) Some of the valuations are not that much more attractive than ANF, but I sure do like its earnings and revenue growth. Great margins, ROE, even better than ANF's impressive numbers. EPS estimates rose in last week. Graham FV calculation looks good. Fido's Joe Tillingast (sp) owns. Nice earnings surprises to the upside last 4 quarters. Discussed KSWS before (feel like I'm repeating myself!) but never acted on it. Dumb. So maybe I was feeling a little antsy.... to buy. :>) K-Swiss Reports Record Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Thursday February 3, 7:00 am ET snip K-Swiss also issued guidance for the first quarter of 2005 and for 2005. The Company expects revenues for the first quarter of 2005 to be approximately $138 to $143 million and earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.52 to $0.57. The Company expects full year revenues to be approximately $480 to $500 million and expects to report full year earnings per diluted share of approximately $1.70 to $1.80. The Company's estimates for the first quarter of 2005 and full year 2005 reflect the continued investments in marketing, sales and product development for the Royal Elastics brand as well as the expansion of European operations. They are based upon the following assumptions: gross margins will be between 44% and 45%; SG&A will not rise above $32 million for the quarter and $127 million for the year; cancellations will be moderate; and the Company's growth initiatives with respect to Royal Elastics will not exceed a net loss of $0.07 to $0.08 per share for the year. Steven Nichols, Chairman of the Board and President, stated, "In a year filled with many notable accomplishments, the fourth quarter lived up to our expectations. We noted with pleasure the recent improvement in sales to our largest customer, yet another quarter of company-leading sales from our Classic shoe and the increasingly significant contribution from our international business. We also successfully executed a fourth quarter television campaign - our largest in that time period - that resulted in a sizable increase in at-once business and improvement in margin.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20632)	2/10/2005 7:02:22 AM
From: David	Respond to of 78704

Watching the quick rise breaking $55.00 per share I keep diluding myself into believing ANF has sustainable advantage and is therefore a (dicey) long term hold. I sold leaps ('07 $50s)on 1/3 of my position when the company broke $50.00 a couple of weeks ago, thinking if the stock price plumeted sometime, even down to $30.00 per share, I could buy 'em back and continue holding as the company fundementals continued to grow, or if I was called out I would receive a total $60+ per share. I understand there is a big assumption here, but Jeffries and co. created nearly a ten year history of hugely profitable growth using little or no debt. I am not happy about the present valuation here, but if you can depend upon the growth prospects of 10%-15% per year over the next 10 years or so and 5% growth thereafter the today's price may be justied. Of course, these assumptions require nearly perfect execution and at todays price there is little, if any, margin of safety.