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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: profile_14 who wrote (2202)	2/8/2005 7:37:05 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 13449

Profile: I don't understand this question: "Now, if it [TOL] opens down and closes down, what does it mean, technically speaking?" If it opens below 86 (today's close) and closes below 86/where it opened, what would that mean? I dunno. It would have to do it first, it would have some other things going on (we can call them volume events, intraday action, other technical things). You might be quick on the draw to declare it another top, or topping pattern, but I would be less analytical, more reactive in the best sense of those terms. I guess my approach would be, watch and learn what the price action wanted to teach me. So far, that has been the (financially) healthy approach in this name. Kb

To: profile_14 who wrote (2202)	2/8/2005 8:32:33 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

I've thought a little bit more about your question: "Now, if it opens down and closes down, what does it mean, technically speaking?" Assuming that your question is what if TOL has a down day tomorrow, what would that mean?, my initial response is in almost 99% of the scenarios I can imagine, nothing. If you have a charting service that can take you back in time, look at the daily candle for 1/20/05, a down day after 5 rising days. What did that candle mean? Nothing. A little pullback to close at 73.64. The next day's candle was down again. What did it mean? Nothing. That is, nothing in the sense of the trend of the stock. In the course of 2 days the stock which had run up to about 75 now retraced a little within the 10,8 Bollinger Bands, volume fell off and certain indicators relaxed from bullishness toward neutrality. But in the sense of "meaning," nothing at all. The chart (the market) will deliver its meaning when it wishes and not before. Trying to presuppose what will transpire beyond the mysterious right edge of a chart is perilous business at best, especially perilous when predicting that a long term, intact trend will suddenly stop and reverse. If I had to weigh the probabilities of TOL's chart tomorrow, after a very very powerful looking candle today, I'd say probabilities favor a higher open and a higher close, and that would be the way to play the underlying or the options on this name. Let's continue to monitor this stock, detailed analysis of this test case will reveal certain market verities for us to study and learn. Kb