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To: Frank who wrote (39087)2/8/2005 11:26:29 PM
From: buckbldr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206177
 
Me too, Frank. I see INO.com showing a settle of 6.164 on a close of +.195. Also, the Amex NG index shows a close at high of day +1.28 at 297.36. Sure looks like an up day to me.

You asked why? Don't get me t' lyin'! Maybe it's looking a little ahead to maestro Bastardi's big artic blow in this weekend? Also Robry's draws seem to be exceeding the estimates again...maybe the market is recognizing that his weekly figures are more reflective of the facts.

Looks like my strategy of playing the laggers on day trades is not the sharpest tactic in the world...I played NE thru 3 in & out trades all day long...it was a lagger early, and stubbornly refused to try to catch up with its peers...ended up in cash with a little under $400 loss on that rascal. PTEN last week, and now NE...I'm going to have to make some changes! It really hacks me to watch some of the strong starters go on and show some stellar performance without me enjoying the ride.

Am planning to stay on top of the CL inventory report at 10:30 a.m., intending to jump on one or two of my drillers for the ride up if the report shows a bullish tally.

Are you happy with your ESV position?...not a bad show today!

Cheers!

Buck



To: Frank who wrote (39087)2/9/2005 11:20:37 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Respond to of 206177
 
Frank, I just now saw your post from yesterday.

StochCharts shows NG futures ($NATGAS) closed yesterday at 6.300 and today at 6.299. It has been pointed out to me that StockCharts is not accurate. However, I just look at the pattern of the chart and not at the exact values, so it doesn't bother me. I am glad to know that when I need a real number for NG I need to look at a more reliable source.

FWIW, I see daily NG in wave 2, which is a correction down. I expect it to go down around 6.00 and then start wave 3 up. The daily is a sub-wave to the monthly, which is just starting wave 5 up. Waves 1 and 3 were very steep up, so the expectation would be for wave 5 to be similar. However, wave 5's are unpredictable and sometimes they are weaker and sometimes stronger. But most of the time they behave reasonably well.

stockcharts.com

Notice on the monthly chart how in 2002-2003 the impulse wave up was very nice and the waves were pretty parallel with a nice channel. And its wave 5 was so robust it over shot the top of the channel. The 2004-2005 impulse wave has been steeper, but the waves have not been as parallel. This makes me suspicious of wave 5. It might poop out before it gets to the top of the channel, which would be about $10.

BWDIK!

Best,

JRH