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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (26125)	2/9/2005 1:06:31 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Feb 09 2005 11:54 trotsky (Hambone@inversion) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "do you think the Fed has the balls to continue until they invert or will they back off?" i think they'll be forced to back off before that happens, imo the economy is already far weaker than officially acknowledged, and is bound to exhibit more weakness in coming months due to low money supply growth over the past year. Date: Wed Feb 09 2005 11:51 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "I maintain that such an "air pocket" creates just the type environment that sends investors to safe havens such as PMs, and they will be the only sector to at least hold during those circumstances, if not rise dramatically." well, yes, in the case of gold the metal, but certainly not in the gold STOCKS. see 1987 for what happens when market liquidity diappears. gold continued to march higher during and after the stock market crash, but the gold stocks actually crashed worse than the Dow. Date: Wed Feb 09 2005 11:45 trotsky (Carmack@the duck) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i said yesterday, i believe we're going to get at least a fairly decent bounce here ( we'll see if it becomes more than that ) . money flows have looked quite positive for some time now, and many stocks in the sector are simply sold out imo. also, the CoT reports on gold and currency futures now look quite constructive. plus, there's a lot of room for inflows into pm related funds considering how much money has flown out over the past year, so the potential for a sizeable rally has certainly increased, very short term fluctuations notwithstanding ( it's going to be choppy imo, more so than usual, since there's so much overhead resistance now in many stocks ) .