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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (26152)	2/9/2005 2:35:38 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Feb 09 2005 13:26 trotsky (Hambone, 12:03) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i said previously, i do think the sector could well rise concurrently with a stock market decline , especially if the yield curve steepens ( which in turn imo requires that the FOMC goes back into cutting mode ) . i'm only saying that this will work only as long as the stock market doesn't decline too dramatically in a very short time. iow the frog needs to be boiled slowly. Date: Wed Feb 09 2005 13:21 trotsky (P. Yorkie, 11:40) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved whenever one feels as smug as you apparently do about one's investments, it is high time to get cautious. in the context of oil stocks, note that they have historically correlated better with the broad stock market than with the oil price ( consult the charts if you don't believe it ) . thus it's not sufficient to be aware of where crude oil is likely going to go, one also needs to have an opinion on the stock market in general. as far as i can tell the oil price only determines the degree of relative performance of the sector, but not so much the general direction. i'm not saying that there can't be more upside - as long as the sector looks technically healthy, the trend is obviously intact. but it's almost a given that stuff that has become 'boring' as you have put it is going to become less boring in the future. note also, Wall Street didn't like the oil stocks BEFORE they went up, but they sure like them a lot better now. the mean recommendation for e.g. XOM's ratings has gone from way below the SnP mean in '02/'03 to way above as per now.