The Next Bubba?
By GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS
February 10, 2005; Page A13
The Wall Street Journal
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. -- The Democrats have noticed that senators and Northeasterners don't do especially well in presidential elections. That has led to some talk of running a governor from the South in 2008, but Southern Democratic governors are in short supply.
Of those who remain, my governor, Phil Bredesen, is starting to get some attention. A while back, The Economist of London called him a governor with a CEO approach. And The New Republic recently made him the subject of a cover story focusing on his ability to win over the opposition. But should he decide to run for president in 2008, his biggest problems may come from his fellow Democrats.
Right now he's well-liked, having replaced an unpopular Republican governor who made repeated efforts to pass a state income tax. Those efforts provoked near riots as anti-tax protestors mobbed the Capitol (one man brought a bucket of tar and a bag of feathers), and the income tax died a painful death. That, however, left Tennessee with serious financial problems. Education -- especially higher education -- was underfunded, and the TennCare health insurance program, a sort of HillaryCare-lite, was devouring the state budget.
Gov. Bredesen met the problems head-on, with 9% across-the-board spending cuts and a novel approach: He said what he was going to do, and then he did it. His first fiscal year ended with the state in surplus, and the "rainy day fund" is at its highest level in history.
[Phil Bredesen]
Gov. Bredesen had beaten a popular Republican, former Rep. Van Hilleary, who was regarded as a near shoo-in at the beginning of the campaign. That might have inspired bitterness among the defeated. But it didn't, and the Bredesen style has a lot to do with that.
Phil Bredesen is a Northerner, and conventional wisdom says that they don't do well in the South. But Southerners have a tradition of accepting smart Yankees into the fold, so long as they're respectful and not condescending. That, along with a willingness to learn from his mistakes, is Gov. Bredesen's secret.
In his first run for governor, Mr. Bredesen campaigned as an almost Dukakis-like technocrat, stressing his business experience and managerial skills. He lost. But by the time he ran again, he had learned how to present a less chilly image. As The New Republic article points out, he traveled the state, meeting with opponents and listening respectfully, and without an ounce of the condescension that marked John Kerry's efforts to reach out to the good-old-boy crowd. Instead of TV commercials, he attended chili suppers and town meetings. He listened to people, and they responded to his demonstrations of respect.
It really did play out this way. The result was that the standard move against a candidate like Phil Bredesen, painting him as an out-of-touch outsider, didn't work, because it wasn't true. He also wasn't afraid to step away from scripts, and onto what's usually regarded as enemy turf. One of the things that's struck me most is how well Gov. Bredesen does on conservative talk radio. He answers questions rather than ducking them or retreating into slogans and sound bites, and as a result the hosts (and listeners) respect him even when they disagree. That's an important skill: If you can imagine a Democratic presidential nominee who will hold his own on Rush Limbaugh or Hugh Hewitt's shows, you're imagining a Democrat who could win the general election.
Gov. Bredesen's success at reaching out to the opposition is undeniable. He's probably the most popular governor in Tennessee history, and there are even people around the state who call themselves "Republicans for Bredesen" and plan on backing him, across party lines, if he runs for president in 2008. His biggest problems, though, may come from within his own party.
The state income tax has long been a holy grail for the urban part of Tennessee's Democratic Party; Gov. Bredesen isn't pushing it. Meanwhile, his TennCare reforms are angering people who don't want to see benefits cut, and he is waging all-out war against the public-interest lawyers who have turned to the courts, over and over again, to block efforts to shrink TennCare rolls or lower benefits. This led Gov. Bredesen to comment, in his Jan. 31 State of the State Address, that "There are many people who claim to represent the public interest in this, but not a one of them has ever stood before the voters." This attitude has ruffled some feathers among the state's public-interest community, and the journalists who tend to sympathize with its views and goals.
Gov. Bredesen also alienated trial lawyers with a workers' compensation reform plan that they regard as anti-lawyer and anti-worker. Knoxville trial lawyer, and lifelong Democrat, Douglas C. Weinstein comments, "I liked the guy when he ran, and I don't think much of him now. He relied on the support of lawyers like me, and he sold us down the river."
For other Democrats, Gov. Bredesen's ability to win praise from Republicans is more worrisome than his policies. Tennessee Democratic blogger South Knox Bubba criticizes Gov. Bredesen for his TennCare efforts and for the workers' comp reform, but his strongest criticism comes here: "I hate to accuse Bredesen of being a sellout. But when heartless right-wing 'Christian' conservatives and rabid neo-conservatives bent on world domination start singing his praises, you know there's something wrong."
When you're a minority party, as the Democrats are, reaching out to the opposition would seem to be essential. But whatever his other skills, if Gov. Bredesen's fellow Democrats can't appreciate that, he's going to have problems.
Mr. Reynolds, publisher of InstaPundit.com1, is a law professor at the University of Tennessee.
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