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Pastimes : Should U.S. attempt manned missions to the Moon? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (38)	2/10/2005 4:50:37 PM
From: Fangorn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41

Tim, I did not claim that it being overdue increased the odds in the next X years though it probably does. I do know that another impact is inevitable and stand by my claim of "near certainty" in said time frames (not that we are likely to have confirmation either way in our lifetimes...I hope). re >If the average is one per X yers, than in the next X years we have a 50% chance of it happening.< If the average is one per x years, the largest gap ever recorded is 2x years, and we haven't had one in 1.5x years what are the odds for the next x years? This is a better formula to apply to a possible impact. In such a situation the likelihood of impact approaches 1.