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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (27103)	2/11/2005 11:04:18 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

it could turn out he is able to afford it for any number of reasons. the most likely one, of course, is that some sanity is restored to the SCA real estate market. Sanity necessary to get him back in where he left would require prices to be cut in half. Meanwhile he put his equity into a market which continued to lag and took three years of his peak earnings years to play construction worker instead of retraining for some other occupation with a higher income than the one he left which is what he needed to do. He did the equivalent of selling a fast growing company to buy one that was lagging. This might have worked if more people had decided to do the same thing, leave the over priced market to buy in the underpriced one (LA to Las Vegas). My brother-in-law has made a pile in RE with this very strategy, selling his appreciated RE to buy in an area where he expects the growth to move to next....but the difference is that there is no driver driving SLC. He bought into a post boom market people want to leave, even he wants to leave it. It would be the equivalent of me moving from the fast growing Baltimore suburbs back into the City which has been losing population for the last twenty years. i don't think Hell-A real estate will do to well in an era of expensive ground transportation. all it takes is one well placed bomb in Ras Tanura and oil goes to $150. that bomb alone could be enough to kill the Southern California economy and make LA very affordable on the way to ridiculously cheap. instead of being covered with floating carcasses, i imagine it will be strewn with bankruptcy notices. Ah, the oil argument again. I guess when all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail.