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Technology Stocks : Alphabet Inc. (Google) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: djia101362 who wrote (911)	2/11/2005 8:39:10 AM
From: Mark Fleming	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15857

Answer this question please. If seems like you think you're the only person around predicting a massive selloff in GOOG stock on Monday. Don't you think others would see this coming and sell now at $185+ than wait until Monday and sell at say $150, or are you the only one smart to enough to see this?</userdefined> Yes, that is something people are missing. The saying, "the market knows" seems appropriate here.

To: djia101362 who wrote (911)	2/11/2005 12:03:54 PM
From: olivier asser	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15857

Yahoo is generally a worthless discussion but there are a few good posts among all the hype. One of them concerned the laws of supply and demand in an auction market. Now, maybe everyone knows about the insider selling coming - or maybe not, considering many have said not really all those shares are going to be sold, without proof that that's true. When a flood of shares come onto the market, someone is going to have to buy them at current prices, or else the floor comes out from under the stock, bidders pull back to lower levels, and prices plummet. Now, do you really believe institutions are going to take 50% of GOOG at these prices, take a $35 billion gamble? Do you think Wall Street investment banks will? Look, I may be very wrong, but I have some trading experience, and I know that float is a huge issue in the trading characteristics of a stock: 1. Low float = short squeeze and rocket on demand outstripping supply 2. Flooded float = the reverse, buyers back of and new shares are borrowed to short GOOG has benefited from a very low float, only effectively I believe something like maybe 50-75 million shares, since its IPO. No demand so we rocket and shorts are easily squeezed. Now the float is going to increase dramatically. Whether known or not, there is no way of getting around all those shares being sold. Let me give you an example. I was once in a highly liquid stock, one of the mania stocks that had rocketed and I wanted to sell about 20,000 shares at market. When I tried to sell in 1,000-share lots, they dropped bids, when they saw 5 of them in succession. Then I decided to simply sell in 5k blocks, and when I did MM's rapidly dumped the stock 20%. And we're talking only 20,000 shares in a stock that then did about a million shares on a good day, that day it did 25 million or so I believe. I saw this pattern on many other Internet stocks. So, when we have even only four times (40 million) the daily volume coming up for sale that is going to have an extremely negative impact on the stock price. The only way it won't is if none of those shares are put up for sale on Monday. I believe they will be, if the huge insider selling this week, now going on 1 million shares sold by two executives, is any indication.