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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (26261)	2/11/2005 11:05:12 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Other than addressing a couple technical and "gearing" truisms Dave Message 21038479 (and you) are on another planet from what Fillmore and I are looking at. First you think there are real buyers for bonds, when in fact it's largely nothing more than artificial and manipulative (see Roubini's Bretton Wood II essay ()). Just look at how poorly the ten year went when real money has to be put up and the foreign CBs are MIA. The dealers bought it all. The big bond rally of the last few weeks was futures driven (i.e synthetic economics). Secondly you (and apparently others like Bernake) have an Orwellian view that inflation is deflation, which was the whole point of the CI piece, in effect calling the MoP data bogus. Finally weak economic numbers will only be deflationary and "bond friendly" if the Wizards change their Uncle Ernie pedophile proclivities. That's not impossible, but the proof will be in the pudding (their actions). () Roubini feels bonds trade 200 bps lower than the natural level because of heavy handed CBs intervention. I think it's even more because of the lies about inflation data, that apparently the cognoscenti actually accept. I think the natural rate in 300-400 bps higher than the Bretton Woods II fixed level. It will go even higher if the money printing renews.