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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (26322)	2/12/2005 2:01:00 AM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi Russ, Are you suggesting the Fed's current monetary restraint is due to the threat of an end to what Roubini is calling BW2? It would make sense that China (and Japan) would issue private warnings before the public hears anything about it. If so, the market should take a hit. "Of course if foreign vendor financing is withheld (which seems to be happening lately), then Uncle Ernie gets put away for awhile, and the Wizards act reformed and just a bit "responsible". We are seeing that of late." K

To: russwinter who wrote (26322)	2/13/2005 9:22:14 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

I'm not sage in these matters at all -- but with Argentina aren't we ignoring one pretty important characteristic of their market: size?? Hot money flows can do a lot of crazy things with a small country's capital accounts and financial markets. What share of world GDP did Argentina account for, before the bust?? With respect to the American bubble -- it has taken the combined efforts (imbalances) of the US, Japan and China to blow the bubble -- I think that alone will probably rule out your inflationary bust. Dollars become toilet paper?? Can't become toilet paper against EVERYTHING -- too big -- certainly not against the other major currencies (we're talking a matter of degrees here, IMO). With respect to certain commodities that are or will be in chronic under-supply?? sure.