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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sirius_Rich who wrote (4901)	2/12/2005 4:05:41 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Rich, Re: DISH Buying on a solid support level is good. btw, I just fully updated the long and short lists as well as the rest of the information in the thread header for next week's trading. Subject 51210 Reid

To: Sirius_Rich who wrote (4901)	2/12/2005 8:52:32 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi Rich, I saw the exchange between you and Reid re DISH. I think it has an interesting chart, but I saw some conflicting signals on the daily chart that were confusing to me: DISH daily chart: 139.142.147.218 I think this chart shows nicely that DISH has been in a trading range/consolidation period for the last 5 months. It is very noteworthy that when the bottom of this trading range is approached, there is a volume surge indicating professional (not necessarily institutional) accumulation. You can see marked volume surges in August that lifted DISH above resistance at $30 and into the trading range, then in early November as it approached the support level defined by the bottom of that trading range (i.e., chart support), then again at the end of January as it again approached support at $30. As Reid pointed out, there is a disturbing volume-heavy "power candlestick" above that will act as resistance. Technical indicators give conflicting signs: OBV has dropped dramatically, and there is a stochastic sell signal using a fast stochastic setting. On the other hand, Williams is signaling buy, a slower stochastic setting shows extreme oversold conditions with +/- buy signal, and MACD is confirming. And, DISH is moving sideways into resistance at the middle of the BBs, and at first glance appears to be losing steam as it encounters the power candle above and it's associated resistance. 139.142.147.218 However, I think the situation is a bit clearer when you look at the long-term trend on the weekly chart: DISH weekly chart: 139.142.147.218 This chart puts that overhead power candle into perspective. You can see that the black candle is dwarfed by the combine power candles that form support below. The first one is the one in August that lifted DISH into the trading range in the first place. The second is the one that occurred in the second week of November that essentially negates the effect of the black candlestick above. stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pi!b200][vc60]&pref=G Also, you can see from this chart that DISH itraded down to the lower BB rail (an area of support that coincides with chart support/volume support), where it has now lifted away from slightly and formed a reversal candle. One other thing: the 200 sma is at $30.61. This is important support/resistance. I do NOT think DISH has failed at that level. Instead, it powered through from below, and confirmed. Now it has dropped below the 200 but has not confirmed, and I do not think it will. So my interpretation is that DISH will move higher from here, and 30.61 is a key level that DISH must close above. It must also form a higher high above that level, and if so, $32 looks easily within reach. A breakdown below 30 and a lower low would indicate that DISH has failed at a key support levels, and will drop down out of the trading range. So... 30 is critical, then exceeding the 200 sma again. I think it is likely DISH will succeed and move higher, probably to 32, and from there could move up further to test overhead at $34. If DISH traded up that high, I would sell the position. Alternatively, sell half the position, and trail a tight stop as DISH negotiates overhead. All IMHO.... T