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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: profile_14 who wrote (2253)	2/13/2005 3:40:12 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

>>> The set ups are key, as you suggest, but they ignite based on a specific news event, or an excuse to make them go one way or another. <<< Profile, Therein lies the rub, from my point of view. In looking for why a stock's price may rise or fall, we first must have the correct information. How do we know what we are reading isn't biased toward one view or the other? How long does it take for that information to ignite price action? How do you know when you are wrong? Once you believe you have the correct information, you've got a predisposition that expects price to behave one way when in fact, it can behave another. That expectancy is designed to cause failure over the long run because it causes one to hold when they should sell. (They have a predisposition because of what they believe price should do. Price is going one way, they expect it to go another based on the news or events they believe should ignite the price in their direction.) There just isn't a good enough probability of being able to duplicate positive results again and again and again with this strategy, in my opinion. In my humble opinion, trying to anticipate a certain result is akin to trying to be too smart. As a sales manager I always told my people, don't try to be too smart. You'll talk yourself out of a sale, and they did when they let ego get in the way. As a commission only salesman, your paycheck at the end of the week was determined by your results during the week. No sales, no pay. We couldn't afford to try and be "too smart." We had to play probabilities and probabilities had to do with how we did our prospecting (set ups) and how many presentations (buy and sell orders) we made off those set ups. It was the only way to survive as a commission salesman. You had to be consistent with your results. You couldn't afford blank weeks (huge drawdowns). Trading is very much like being on commission sales, if you are trying to provide a living at it. You can't afford to be too smart. You must keep an open mind and go with the flow. Try to anticipate a move and you are wrong, you don't bring home a pay check. I understand it works for you. Some of us just aren't that smart and we need another way to be consistently profitable. I can't even anticipate accurately what kind of mood the Missus will be in from day to day. I can't imagine how I can accurately predict, with any consistency, what the market is going to do. There are many ways to profit in the market, thanks for sharing yours. dabum