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To: John Vosilla who wrote (23458)	2/13/2005 12:56:34 AM
From: kailuabruddah	Respond to of 116555

Having lived through the Japanese Bubble induced Hawaii RE Bubble in the early 1990s, even if we equate Miami, CA, Boston, NYC, Vegas, with 1991/2 Hawaii conditions, I doubt we will see massive price declines right away - inventory will simply build to around 3, perhaps 4, and maybe even 5 times normal inventory conditions over the next year - then we will see 5% to 7% annual declines... Granted, all of the ARMs re-adjusting at once in 4 to 5 years could cause an additional 10% to 15% air pocket in 2009 or so... Hawaii's peak is drawing nearer: starbulletin.com the.honoluluadvertiser.com starbulletin.com In the 2011 to 2013 time frame, RE will be a very good buy in the former bubble markets...

To: John Vosilla who wrote (23458)	2/13/2005 10:37:32 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

the current housing bubble indeed rivals the NYSE in 1929, Japan in 1989, and the NAZ in 2000. Headline in today's PALM BEACH POST Who is buying all those $500,00 houses? More people financing big houses with new loan options such as interest only mortgages. They're banking on fast profit, not future security. People earning as little as $35,000 annually now "own" $800,000 houses that they hope to sell for a million or more within a year or two.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (23458)	2/13/2005 12:20:57 PM
From: George K.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

The coastal housing bubble is nothing like a stock market mania for one simple reason that all the real estate bears just don't get and never will - the presence of many players not motivated by profit. What many people who harp about overleveraged borrowers and high prices don't get is that they assume everyone borrows. There are many, many cash sales out there involving people who either have plenty of it and/or are at a stage in life where cash and price have little meaning. Instead what they are looking at is VALUE - the way they have come to define it - and a nice looking waterfront lot with or without a home has plenty of value. In the grand scheme of things, they could give a hoot if they pay 1M and it falls to 750K or less and all the neighbors are being foreclosed on. They can't take the money with them, or they want to enjoy what time they have left in a place they like or whatever. And they can always leave it to the kids. Geo.