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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (4937)	2/13/2005 9:47:13 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

Yes, to the extent that the markets think this will bring greater stability. Whether it will or not is arguable. Personally, I think the only "stable" situation in Iraq is one in which one group (doesn't really matter who) is able to dominate. That's been their history. Groups not in control are basically dormant volcanos waiting their chance to explode. Other possible longer term solutions will not develop in any short time frame, but could happen in with time if they like (probably at least decades). I don't think anybody is surprised at the outcome, so maybe the markets won't make much of it. Also, no surprise that the Sunnis don't accept the results, and they are behind most of the bloodshed for obvious reasons: ================================ Turnout was also low in the Sunni Arab provinces of Ninevah and Salaheddin, both insurgency centers. An American soldier was killed and another wounded in Salaheddin as the results were being announced in Baghdad. After results came out today, some Sunnis again rejected the whole process. "The elections were held to fight the Sunnis and were led by the Americans with the Kurds and Shiites," said Ramadi mechanic Abdullah al-Dulaimi. "The election results will lead to a sectarian war." Mohammed Bashar of the anti-American Association of Muslim Scholars said he questioned the figures because few international or U.N. monitors were present in Iraq for the vote. latimes.com ============================= But again, it matters much more what the markets think. I'll have to check the futures, but I can't see that this will change the overall course of things except in the very short term (a few days). I suspect the market has already priced in the expected Shiite win. T

To: Vendit™ who wrote (4937)	2/14/2005 1:20:17 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi Reid, Well, as of about 1am ET, the futures have not reacted to the news from Iraq. They opened flat, and have stayed that way so far. Here's the E mini Naz chart: futuresource.com The SPX looks about the same in terms of the current session: futuresource.com Oil is trading down a bit over this session, hovering above $47. Looks to me like there is further upside on this leg, judging from the stochastics (which are not overbought) and the support levels and BB: futuresource.com The dollar continues the correction that began last week, and looks to be headed to the lower BB, which would also be an area of chart support: futuresource.com April Gold has rallied right into resistance, with more resistance above, and close to overbought territory. Seems intent on resuming the slide that began at the beginning of December, but is currently trading up a bit for now: futuresource.com As for the overseas markets, the major Asian markets all finished about 1% in the green, and all the minor Asian markets were in plus territory as well except Australia. Almost unanimous rally in Asia. The European markets open in another couple of hours. I think the Asian markets are reacting to Friday's session in New York, just following along. Probably the European markets will do the same, but considerably more subdued. I don't think the Asian markets are reacting to anything in Iraq, otherwise we'd see evidence of that in the futures trading. Mostly, I don't think they particularly care anymore, that everything is priced into their markets. And very likely, they are far more concerned with what that schizoid idiot with the bad bad haircut in North Korea is doing to stability right in their own back yards. Probably things in Iraq are priced into the US markets as well. At this point, the open tomorrow seems to be shaping up much the same as the open last Monday. Last Friday's session was similar to the previous Friday (with some notable exceptions as outlined in my post on QQQQ on Friday). So... I suspect we'll see a mild rally at the open as the retail orders are filled, but I can't see any evidence that this will be sustained. T