Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (23524)	2/14/2005 11:48:27 AM
From: redfish	Respond to of 116555

Last Christmas total U.S. sales were up about 3% while credit card purchases were up 17%, if I remember correctly. What will probably happen, with so many people owning multiple cards, is they will start taking cash advances out on the non-maxed cards to make the minimum monthlies on all their cards. And there is no way out from that hole except chapter 7.

To: mishedlo who wrote (23524)	2/14/2005 1:25:53 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

You make a lot of good points. Guess it comes down to will new innovation and capital investment to create new businesses, new markets and new worldwide demand be enough to offset the slowdown by the overextended US consumer. Not looking to good where an ownership based society, record low interest rates and spending on defense is the best this administration has to keep the economy going and suck all the available capital that should have been used for more productive uses. I still say the misallocation of capital, speculation and overvaluation of assets seemed to be across the board at the same time in Japan 1989 and USA 1929. Though the negatives now are many I predict this cycle will have a different conclusion than just a flat across the board crash and economic downturn in the US. We have been in a rolling stagflationary depression already for many years that has a long way to run.