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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (26421)	2/14/2005 12:50:22 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Including all types of securities, loans and leases, total credit in commercial banks rose a huge $46.7 billion to $6,900.5 billion, seasonally adjusted. The quarterly annualized growth rate rose to 11%. I have no idea what the hell it means, but I find this a staggering statistic.

To: russwinter who wrote (26421)	2/14/2005 12:52:17 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

and this makes me much more comfortable short the market and long PM's Treasury issuance is increasing. A wave of Treasury borrowing will grow to unprecedented proportions in the first quarter. The commercial banking sector hasn't been keeping pace. Once the convexity-chasing burns itself out, the bond markets will be at the mercy of the support of foreign central banks. We have seen evidence of them retrenching as well. The growth of custodial holdings of Treasuries for foreign central banks at the Fed has slowed significantly in recent months, with negative longer term implications for all US markets.