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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (26438)	2/14/2005 2:41:36 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Feb 14 2005 13:45 trotsky (RIP@Bernanke) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved note that Bernanke is in the camp that accepts Friedman's and Keynes' explanation for the 30's downturn unquestioned. in fact, for a long time i also believed it...only after i made an effort to learn more about what had actually happened did i realize that the information the mainstream consensus view is based on is simply wrong. that was quite a shocker, plus an eye-opener. Date: Mon Feb 14 2005 13:37 trotsky (frustrated@poor auction) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, isn't it remarkable, in spite of indirect bidders being so shy this time around, how well the market has held up? that said, it does look overbought and should correct...emphasis on 'should' , since the CoTs show very little speculative enthusiasm ( specs have gone back to a mid-sized net long position in the 30-year bond, but are still net short the 10-yr. note for instance ) . funny enough, the Consensus Inc. survey recently showed over 90% bond bulls. that CAN'T be correct imo, judging from the CoTs. just this morning a big broker ( i think it was Merrill ) has cut its bond allocation to ZERO percent from 5%. that's right, zero. now the allocation strategists of this broker represent a bullish consensus of zero. in the Rydex universe the ratio of short to long positions has recently fallen to 17.51 - a bearish consensus of 99.94%, or conversely, a bullish consensus of 0.057% ( 146 million invested long vs. 2.57 billion invested short ) . so i'm not sure what to think of this Consensus Inc. number, but note that readings of over 90% HAVE in the past coincided with short term tops.