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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 12:52:24 AM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Thanks, cute cuddly cat. I did not know that<g>. Never listen to the song. Sure sounds like a whammy country song<g>.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:05:59 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
grain report
CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Monday, February 14th, and the markets are closed. Our weekly export inspection numbers came out at 10:00 a.m. showing 29.5 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export up from 22 the week prior and 25 a year ago. Year to date inspections are 792 m.b. versus 843 a year ago. Even though we were higher on the week, we were down from 35.7 on the four week average. It is friendly but not a bullish demand signal. 40 m.b. or more is bullish. Corn traded mostly higher on further short covering on the March contracts as the record short position is being squeezed out ahead of March 1st delivery notices. Funds came in short over 120 thousand contracts but commercials are equally heavy in the market buy long. As funds continue to buy back shorts look for commercials to sell strength this looks to limit March corn to our 2.10 resistance near term. In fact today we saw one major fund buying while the nations largest commercial grain company sold.

BEAN: Our weekly export inspection report showed 26 m.b. were inspected for near term export unchanged for our third consecutive week but under our four week average of 29.2. Year to date inspections are 706 m.b. versus 665. It is a neutral demand signal. More short covering on the March contract as funds and speculators buy back their record short position ahead of delivery notices at month’s end. As you know last Monday’s grain update called for lows to be in buy Wednesday or Thursday as this mechanical buying spree had to accrue. March has gone from a low last Wednesday of 5.03 to 5.37 today. Beans have had a much better short covering rally than corn and wheat on one issue. South American weather. Dryness has traders buying back shorts quicker. Last good rains were last Monday and Tuesday then dry into Sunday. Note, last Wednesday’s USDA crop report lowered Brazil’s production 1.5 m.m.t. due to a generally drier than normal January. It is still a record crop 10 m.m.t. over a year ago but as the supply side curve drops, the price curve rises. Today’s 10 cent climb comes on a dry forecast through Sunday. WXRISK.com sees potential for dryness to go into early next week as well. March has resistance at 5.42. Next resistance is 5.60. If we are going to push through and close over 5.42 the market needs to feel that dryness will prevail next week as well. It could take until Wednesday or Thursday for the trade to get a better feel for the trade to get a better feel for next week’s weather. Remember, we are in key yield time in Brazil now. Buy a dip Tuesday with tight stops and watch the weather closely. I got you in the March 5.10 calls last Tuesday they expire week’s end so look to take profits on this rally.

WHEAT: Our weekly export inspection report showed 15.8 m.b. were inspected for near term export, up from 13 the week prior but under our four week average of 16.5. year to date inspections are 748 m.b. versus 792. This is a neutral to negative demand signal. Weather on our dormant wheat and demand signal. Weather on our dormant wheat and demand remain a negative factor but large speculators came in this week short over 40 thousand contracts and need to buy out before March 1st. This had March up over 7 cents on the close. March resistance is now 3.07 then 3.12. We should not trade over 3.12 this week but a test of 3.07 is reasonable.

End.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:11:30 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
US capital flows fall sharply in Dec
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 2:16:09 PM
afxpress.com

WASHINGTON (AFX) - Overseas investors reduced their purchases of bonds and stocks in December, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. Foreign long-term net capital flows into the United States fell to $61.3 billion in December from a revised $89.3 billion in November. The figure reflects net foreign purchases of U.S. securities minus net U.S. purchases of foreign securities

Foreigners bought $8.4 billion of Treasury notes and bonds in December, well below the $32.8 billion bought in November, according to the Treasury International Capital data

Foreign central banks slashed their purchases of Treasury notes and bonds, to $7.0 billion from $21.0 billion in November. The drop in purchases was spread across countries. Chinese residents bought $193.8 billion, slightly more than the $191.1 billion they bought in November. Foreigners bought $26.6 billion of agency debt in December - which includes asset-backed securities such as mortgages. This is slightly below the $27.8 billion purchased in November. In corporate debt, foreigners bought $40.8 billion, up from $25.6 billion in November. Foreigners bought $7.1 billion in equities, down from $14.5 billion in November. Foreign capital flows are funding the nation's large current account deficit, which allows Americans to consume more than they produce and invest more than they save



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:13:58 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. Jan. retail sales fall 0.3% on autos -
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 2:25:56 PM
afxpress.com

WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. retail sales dropped 0.3 percent in January as auto sales slowed sharply, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday

Excluding the 3.3 percent drop in auto sales, retail sales increased 0.6 percent

Economists were looking for a 0.4 percent decline in overall sales and a 0.5 percent gain in sales excluding autos, according to a canvass conducted by MarketWatch. It was the largest decline in retail sales in five months. Sales had increased 1.1 percent in December, revised lower from the 1.2 percent originally reported. Sales excluding autos had risen 0.3 percent in December. November's sales were also revised down a tenth of a percentage point

Sales are up 7.2 percent in the past 12 months, while ex-auto sales are up 7.6 percent. The figures are seasonally adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes. Retail sales account for about half of consumer spending and one-third of gross domestic product. Analysts expect retail sales to slow somewhat from the rapid growth seen in the last half of 2004, when consumer spending increased at a 4.8 percent annual rate. Continued job growth and rising incomes should underpin spending, they say

"Consumer spending is strong," said Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "A temporary slowdown in [the first quarter] is fairly likely due to a pullback in auto sales, but we believe that households will continue to spend heartily in 2005." In a separate report, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said their weekly chain store index rose 0.1 percent last week while the year-over-year increase slowed to 1.7 percent. Customer traffic was stronger than sales, said ICSC economist Mike Niemira

In a separate report, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said regional manufacturing activity increased at about the same pace in February as January. The Empire State index dipped to 19.2 from 20.1. In January, retail sales of durable goods were generally poor, while nondurables were healthy. Gasoline and clothing were particularly strong

Sales at building material, hardware and garden stores dropped 0.3 percent in January after rising 14.1 percent in the past 12 months. Electronics and appliance sales dropped 0.6 percent. Furniture sales fell 0.1 percent

Auto sales plunged in January to an annual unit rate of 16.2 million from 18.3 million in December, the automakers said. Anecdotal accounts show a pickup in sales in February as some manufacturers restore sales incentives

Sales at general merchandise stores gained 0.9 percent in January, while clothing store sales rose 1.8 percent. Sales at sporting goods, books and hobby stores gained 0.6 percent

Gasoline station sales also increased 1.8 percent, the result of higher prices

Food store sales increased 0.3 percent, health and personal care sales increased 0.6 percent and restaurant sales increased 0.7 percent

Sales at nonstore retailers such as catalog and online outlets fell 0.2 percent



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:18:50 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
ECB rate hike risk diminishes as Germany narrowly avoids recession
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 12:33:33 PM
forexstreet.com

FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank may have to push back any plans it has for a rate hike this year after data today showed a contraction in fourth-quarter German GDP, economists said

The unexpected quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.2 pct means Europe's largest economy narrowly avoided a recession in the second half of last year

"The German data argue strongly against any ECB rate hike in the foreseeable future," said Bank of America economist Holger Schmieding

According to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistics Office, German GDP fell a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 0.2 pct in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Economists had on average forecast growth of 0.2 pct

To make matters worse, third quarter GDP growth was revised down to zero from the initially-reported 0.1 pct. A statistics office spokeswoman said growth in the third quarter was a marginally positive 0.02 pct, but rounded to zero in the official release

This means Germany came within a whisker of yet another technical recession -- defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The country was in recession in the final three quarters of 2001 and again from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2003

"Since mid-2000, the German economy has managed to grow in only seven out of 18 quarters, the remainder being flat (four) or negative (seven)," Schmieding said

The statistics office revised its estimate of 2004 GDP growth in Germany to 1.6 pct from 1.7 pct

It said the contraction in fourth-quarter GDP was due to a decline in domestic demand, which was only partially compensated by a rise in net exports

Economists said the weak GDP data was probably influenced by a 1.2 pct plunge in retail sales in December from November, which should be revised upwards. Even so, they said the GDP outturn is much lower than expected and is unlikely to be revised significantly higher, meaning any recovery in 2005 will be from a low base

"In isolation, the lower entry point into this year would shave off around four tenths from our full-year GDP growth forecast for 2005, leaving it around 0.7 pct," said Annemarieke Christian at Morgan Stanley

Schmieding said Germany's annual average growth rate for 2005 could come in at 0.8 pct. The German government is currently forecasting growth of 1.6 pct for 2005

The general expectation among economists has been that the ECB will hike interest rates later this year, as the economic recovery in the euro zone gathers pace. The ECB's key interest rate has been at a historic low of 2.0 pct since June 2003, but recent comments from ECB policymakers suggest the central bank is getting nervous about the build up of potential inflationary pressures. Emmanuel Ferry, economist at Exane BNP Paribas, said financial markets are currently pricing in an 80 pct probability that the ECB will tighten monetary policy by a total of 50 basis points this year. But he said today's fourth-quarter GDP data from Germany, which accounts for around a third of the euro zone, "rule out any ECB rate hike in 2005"

And Julien Seetharamdoo at Capital Economics said the surprise fourth-quarter contraction "adds to pressure on the ECB to keep rates on hold for a long time yet"

Euro zone GDP rose a provisional 0.2 pct in the fourth quarter from the third quarter and was up 1.6 pct year-on-year, according to EU statistics office Eurostat. This also fell short of economists' forecasts for growth of 0.4 pct quarter-on-quarter and 1.6 pct year-on-year

Nevertheless, a solid rise in Germany's ZEW economic expectations index today indicates growing optimism in the economic outlook

The index for February rose to +35.9 from +26.9 in January, beating consensus expectations for a rise to +30.0

Gernot Nerb, chief economist at the Ifo Institute in Munich, said Germany is not in danger of entering another recession

Today's GDP data reveal a "growth dent, and not the start of a downswing in Germany", he said



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:42:45 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
UK house prices fall further in Jan, but at slowest pace in 4 mths - RICS
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 7:44:26 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - UK house prices fell further in January, though at their slowest pace in four months with buyers encouraged by speculation that interest rates may have peaked, a closely-watched survey revealed

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said 36 pct more chartered surveyors reported a fall in house prices than a rise in January compared with 38 pct in December

The latest reading is however weaker than the 30 pct expected by analysts

Additionally, January marks the sixth straight month of declines

More encouragingly, the RICS survey also showed that newly agreed sales in January were up for the first time in nine months, boosted by a firm economy, continued job creation and the belief that interest rates may have peaked

The upturn in activity suggests that buyer sentiment may have already passed a low point, though sales are still substantially below year ago levels, RICS said

However, the number of new buyer enquiries showed no significant change for a third month running, having declined markedly through much of the second half of 2004

Surveyors also reported a slight fall in the stock of properties for sale -- the first drop in eight months. Still, the number of unsold remain high, giving prospective buyers greater choice and bargaining power

"As a result, mild price declines are still anticipated by surveyors in the months ahead," RICS added

Geographically, house prices continued to ease in most locations across the country, with declines still most prominent in southern England. In London, house prices were little changed for a second consecutive month

"Sellers remain unwilling to lower asking prices and, with buyers looking to secure a bargain, this has resulted in a rather slow recovery. The strength of the wider economy should support the housing market in the coming months, despite property becoming less affordable as a result of higher interest rates," said RICS spokesperson, Jeremy Leaf. "The market has most likely already hit its lowest point and we should see a recovery in activity, though the prospect of further interest rate rises will keep conditions restrained," he added.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:50:45 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Farmed Robbery
By Thomas J. DiLorenzo

[Posted February 15, 2005]

In his newly-released federal budget President George W. Bush promises to reduce farm subsidies. Predictably, on the day the budget was made public there were well-choreographed "protests" by all the usual suspects, mostly millionaire corporate farmers camped out at the Mayflower or Four Seasons hotels in Washington, D.C. for a few days.

The "protesters" made it on to the evening news in their latest attempt to dupe the American public into believing that they were not really the millionaire owners of large corporate farms, but lowly dust bowl families just trying to make ends meet and feed their families. A public that is gullible enough to believe a president who promises to eradicate tyranny from the planet is likely to fall for this lie as well.

The last time the government made a big fuss over "reducing farm subsidies" was in 1996, when President Clinton signed a "Freedom to Farm" bill that was labeled as one that would literally end farm subsidies. At the time, the primary form of farm subsidy was price supports – price floors that are legally imposed above free-market prices. (If you ever wondered where the U.S. government got all that "free cheese" that it occasionally gives away, it is the mammoth agricultural surpluses created by price supports, and then purchased with tax dollars by the government). Ending price supports would certainly allow agricultural markets to work more efficiently, but isn't it odd to observe the government voluntarily ending a subsidy program that benefits a powerful political constituency – wealthy corporate farmers? It is odd indeed, which is why it isn't true. The subsidies did not end, they just took on a different form.

A principle of public choice economics is that politicians will always do all they can to disguise subsidies to less-than-meritorious groups, such as millionaire farmers. If they can subsidize them through protectionism, or price supports, this is much preferred than simply writing the millionaire businessmen a check. The latter policy would make it too easy for the public to smell a rat. But the price controls had created such gross distortions in agricultural markets that the government apparently decided it was time to get rid of them, kind of. In their place were put a series of "transition payments" that were supposedly designed to temporarily ease the pain and suffering of the poor millionaire farmers who had lost their guarantee of above-market prices for everything they sold.

This ploy was yet another example of the public being duped by a classic governmental bait-and-switch scheme. The transitional payments were never truly transitional, and they were probably never intended to be. The power of the agricultural lobby was never diminished, and it immediately went to work lobbying for increases in the new subsidies and to make them permanent. The lobby has succeeded. Each year there is an orgy of "supplemental spending bills" that increases the amounts of corporate farm welfare the American taxpayers must fork over, amounting to more than $30 billion in one recent year. By calling the program "temporary" or "transitional," Congress guaranteed itself a perpetual stream of campaign contributions from farmers, who could be relied upon to lobby year in and year out to extend the "transitional" subsidies for a few more years, and to increase the amount of the subsidies.

How this system of "farmed robbery" works was explained recently in a February 1, 2005 article in USA Today about Texas cotton farmers. The article featured one Eugene Bednarz, who recently harvested 4,000 bales of cotton. Altogether, this year's Texas cotton production is expected to exceed 7.5 million bales, the best yield in more than 50 years, thanks to perfect weather and the eradication of the dreaded boll weevil.

Unfortunately, this also means the largest theft of taxpayers' income by the farm lobby in more than half a century as well. It turns out that government policy still involves a form of price support. The way it works is that if the market price of cotton (and of many other agricultural products) falls below a government-determined price support level, then the government will use taxpayer dollars to pay the farmers the difference between the actual price they get for their cotton and the arbitrarily-determined price support price. What a deal. Why isn't everyone in Texas a "cotton farmer"?

The current market price of cotton is about 35 cents per pound, with the price control price set at 52 cents. A bale of hay weighs about 50 pounds. Thus, Mr. Bednarz, and all other Texas cotton farmers, will be paid the difference – 17 cents for each pound of cotton. In Mr. Bednarz's case, that means the government will write him a check for $34,000 for doing absolutely nothing. No consumer or taxpayer will receive any benefit whatsoever in return. The politicians responsible for this legalized plunder will be the only other beneficiaries, as farmers like Bednarz will be sure to fatten their campaign coffers with some of their windfall wealth. Texas cotton farmers as a whole will pocket some $63,740,000 as a result of this racket, again giving the hapless taxpayers absolutely nothing in return.

Cotton, wheat, corn, soybean, and rice farmers make out like bandits (literally) through this scheme, while others, such as sugar farmers, rip off their consumers in a slightly different manner, through government-mandated supply reductions which push up prices of sugar to three and four times the world price. This causes everything that is made with sugar to become more expensive as well.

Price supports, supply restrictions, protectionism, taxes, and government regulation all cause prices to be higher than they would in a free market. Not to mention the scourge of inflation, caused by the state's central bank. Virtually everything government does increases the cost of living by driving up prices. Yet most Americans still believe in the fairy tale that it is the free market that causes higher prices and that it is government, through benevolent and wise antitrust regulation, that "saves" us from rapacious monopolists. This has always been a lie; antitrust regulation has always been, at best, a smokescreen designed to divert the public's attention from the real causes of higher prices, such as agricultural price support programs, protectionism, and myriad other forms of government-mandated price increases.

____________________________

Thomas DiLorenzo is professor of economics at Loyola College. His latest book is How Capitalism Saved America: The



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (23574)2/15/2005 10:57:42 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Eurozone growth slows sharply in fourth quarter

February 15, 10.03

Euro zone economic growth unexpectedly slowed to 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004, its weakest pace in 1-1/2 years, European Union statistics agency Eurostat said on Tuesday....

...Analysts' polled by Reuters had expected euro zone growth to have accelerated to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.3 percent in the previous three months. They had anticipated a 1.8 percent year-on-year expansion.

For the whole of 2004, the euro zone economy grew by 2.0 percent, Eurostat said.

Separately, the European Commission cut its euro zone growth forecast for the first quarter of 2005 to 0.2-0.6 percent from 0.3-0.7 percent...

news.ft.com