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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michaelrunge who wrote (26503)	2/15/2005 2:37:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

If oil continues to surge higher, as I believe it will, in an attempt to cap oil prices in local currencies, foreigners will allow their currencies to appreciate versus the USD. The goal is to adjust relative prices and pay less for oil which is priced globally (for the most part) in USD. Who are foreigners and what does "allow" mean? China is pegged so rule them out Malaysia is pegged so rule them out. Europe has not exactly been pleased by the rise but have done nothing about it either. That leaves Japan and Japan has not intervened in currencies for about a year. So exactly what is it you are saying? Mish

To: michaelrunge who wrote (26503)	2/17/2005 2:42:02 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

euro and gold will both be stores of value first euro, then gold you overlook the malinvestment of scads of USDollars like consumer debt like mortgages for overpriced housing like central bank USTBond support (overhang) like industrial commodities (metals, energy) which serves to suppress economic activity the missing links for gold are - retail consumer price inflation - wage growth - bond market distress all are missing and will remain missing for a long time the key is Asian currencys when the yen breaks out, and yuan peg is removed, then gold will zoom until then, most new US$ money supply aids the secular deflation underway since 2000 this is the most under-reported stories in the gold community my Golden Race Car article addressed this issue "The Golden Race Car Struggles" gold-eagle.com energy will prevail over gold in the near term "Oil to Prevail over Gold" gold-eagle.com check out this chart on oil producer VS miners it has broken out upside in the Head & Shoulder pattern favoring energy even includes a little hitch in its giddalong in early Feb after breakout stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[df][pc50][vc60][iLa12,26,9]&pref=G / jim

To: michaelrunge who wrote (26503)	2/18/2005 3:16:33 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

But the inverse of USD is gold. Weak USD = Strong Gold and vice versa. So as the pain from energy prices hits, I think that gold will continue to go up, regardless of deflationary forces So many indicators are telling me we are entering serious reflation mode. Flat wages and rents as well as the low long term rates on a global basis need to be resolved. Multiples on overvalued stock and real estate assets need to contract over time if long term rates go up in a sustained high inflation environment and can only stem a collapse by much higher revenues per unit. I would think our leaders today have learned from the blunders of the Hoover administration and not let a broadbased deflationary environment ever happen again. More than likely Argentina type scenario of recent years could be the result. Anyone see a 1 to 1 ratio again for gold and the Dow? Maybe in the 6-8K range by 2010?