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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (23661)	2/16/2005 7:40:31 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I believe ild's numbers are correct. you have to use the fully diluted shares number from each report. the difference is the change in shares for the qtr. you have to assume the only shares they issued were for options (reasonable). the 1 mil shares I'm talking about is what they issued in options.

To: mishedlo who wrote (23661)	2/16/2005 9:32:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

BoE´s King says outlook for consumer spending ´key risk´ to estimates [Is this guy the equivalent to greenspan or more like a regualr FED governor here? Mish] Wednesday, February 16, 2005 12:40:26 PM afxpress.com BoE's King says outlook for consumer spending 'key risk' to estimates UPDATE (Updating to add further comment from King) LONDON (AFX) - Bank of England governor Mervyn King said today that the "key risk" to the central bank's projections for growth and inflation lies in the prospects for consumer spending He was speaking after the bank slightly lifted its forecast for inflation In its quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation, the BoE said it sees the key CPI inflation measure "passing through" the crucial 2.0 pct mark in 2006 before rising further; thus leaving the door open for one more rate hike this year It also tweaked the wording on the outlook for inflation, saying that the profile "is a shade higher" than its previous estimate made in November. The new estimate indicates that CPI inflation reaches 2 pct "somewhat earlier" compared with the previous forecast made in November, King said Still, he was at pains to explain that the "bigger picture" for the inflation outlook "has not changed a great deal." "There is not a mechanical link from the central projection to decisions on interest rates," King said But he added that although the CPI index is expected to rise above 2 pct in 2006, the balance of risks to inflation are to the downside. Both "roughly" cancel each other out King noted that upcoming data will be key for the path of interest rates "We have to watch data as they evolve," he said But King noted that the outlook for consumer spending is "highly uncertain." He also pointed out that it is "much too soon to draw any conclusions about the pace of consumer spending and the link to house prices," adding that the link between consumer spending and house prices "varies enormously." Historical evidence of how one sector of the economy affects another is not a good guide for making policy decisions given the changes in the economy, he added. Asked whether risks of a house price crash are growing, King said house prices have been broadly flat since November and added that it is a mistake to draw strong conclusions from month-to-month movements "No one can judge where house prices will go," he said, adding that the BoE will respond to developments as they occur King identified the path of labour costs as another risk to the BoE's forecasts but added that so far wage pressures have remained subdued "It is still a pretty modest rate of increase," King said, adding that the latest drop in jobless levels is "very marginal." On inflationary pressures, King said that lower import prices have tended to offset the higher prices of locally produced goods but that this phenomenon is becoming less true over recent months "There is inevitably great uncertainty over the future course of import prices," he added King reiterated that the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee judges that the balance of risks to the latest forecasts are "somewhat to the downside." On the fiscal front, King said a breach of the government's self imposed rules of balancing the budget within the economic cycle "would have repercussions" but he added the BoE is not in a position to judge how likely a breach is King noted that the moderation in consumer spending suggests that there has been some progress in re-balancing the UK economy. The rebalancing refers to the gap between a robust consumer sector and a weak export industry. But although the rate of expansion in consumer spending has slowed, the external trading situation has not improved. The current trade deficit is "not to be sniffed at", King said.