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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (4980)	2/16/2005 7:22:39 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

Hi Reid, Welcome back, hope you got everything sorted out in DC! Yes, a bear trap is a possibility, particularly since the BBs can be expanded to the upside to resolve the situation, and since as you say QQQQ closed above $38.01. That said, I still believe things are most consistent with the conclusion that the medium-term correction is not yet over. FWIW, the max pain point for QQQQ options expiry is $38.00: ez-pnf.com So there is options-related resistance above as well, and the pits will do what they can to get QQQQ to close at $38.00 on Friday. Also, there is tremendous options-related support below, which bodes well for the long-term uptrend. Major overseas markets mostly down. Oil continues to push on but looks like it is starting to get tired, trading now near the high of the session and the middle of the BBs at $47.63: futuresource.com Dollar looks ready to continue the rally that began at the beginning of the year: futuresource.com But the stock index futures continue to show softness. The current e mini Naz futures are trading down a bit, but not looking at all bullish to me: futuresource.com So signals continue to point towards a flat to slightly down opening to the sessions in NY in 2 hours. T

To: Vendit™ who wrote (4980)	2/16/2005 6:19:49 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi Reid, Besides today's chart and technicals, which more strongly suggest reversal with deteriorating technicals.... 139.142.147.218 ...there's a few more things suggesting downside momentum may be building here. Naz e mini futures trading down a bit, oil is well over $48 now and looks determined to retest $50 on this leg up within a few days or a week or so. The upper BB rail is just shy of $50 right now, so that would be the first target. Technical momentum looks pretty decent now. futuresource.com There are some indications from afterhours that the market mood is really turning mean. For example, NTAP and ADBL are getting crucified, but over news that really isn't too bad at all: ============================================ NTAP (down 12% now in AH): Enterprise network storage company reports operating earnings of 0.16 a share for the quarter ended January 31, in line with expectations. Revenue was up 39% from the year-ago level and also slightly ahead of expectations. However, the company gave disappointing guidance for the current quarter. The company sees sequential quarterly revenue growth of 6% to 9%, which translates to approximately $437 to $450 million in revenue. The Reuters Earnings consensus is $451 million. The company sees earnings of $0.16 to $0.17 per share, compared to current expectations of $0.17. The stock trades at a very high multiple, so even these slightly disappointing numbers are being met with significant selling. ADBL (down over 27% in AH): Internet audio company has seemingly strong earnings report, with profits of $0.06 per share, well ahead of the average Wall Street forecast of $0.03. But revenue was only $10.11 million, compared to expectations of $10.48 million. This is a small company, but it has traded almost 2 million shares after hours and is getting hammered after a strong run in recent months. ================================ T