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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (5040)	2/17/2005 8:48:21 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi Reid, Thanks. Just to reiterate for those following, the outlook is unchanged: << So next week, QQQQ will probably again challenge overhead resistance at $38.01 - $38.14. Most likely this will occur early in the week. This might be just an intraday spike, or we may see QQQQ close at or near that region. Either way, it will get turned back again just as it did this week, and the medium-term correction will resume. Price targets below are the support levels defined by the lower BB rail and the 200 sma, which is the region between $36.25 to 36.38. If strong supportive volume does not appear as this level is approached, then QQQQ will proceed down to solid chart support at $35.00. I cannot say how long this may take. It could take a week or it could take a month or more, but my guess is it will take about 2 weeks. >> QQQQ closed at $38.12 on Tuesday, just shy of the upper end of the anticipated range in the upper price limit of $38.01 - $38.14. Now clear sell signals are in place, as QQQQ was convincingly turned back from that region of overhead resistance. 139.142.147.218 Message 21041863 Lower price targets remain as defined previously (the region between the 200 sma and the lower BB rail). This now works out to a price target of $36.31 - $36.55. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb200!d20,2][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G Because the BBs are still somewhat contracted, I expect the lower of the two will be the potential reversal point ($36.31). Again, depending on volume pattern developments, this could occur on a closing basis, or just an intraday dip, but most likely we'll see a close in this region. I now consider the lowest price target (solid chart support at $35.00) to be less likely. The reason is that over the past week we have seen developments in volume patterns that suggest downside momentum is resolving methodically, and professional buyers are getting ready with considerable amounts of dry powder to move this market strongly back into the long-term uptrend. A bit more capitulation of sentiment coinciding with downside trading to process volume, and concomitant accumulation of further supportive volume is all that is needed. It is possible that will require a dip to $35.00, but that now appears less likely. So $36.31 - $36.55 is the most likely reversal zone. Again, I cannot see QQQQ moving below $35.00. That is the ultimate line in the sand, and if we see trading down to that level, the bulls will pull out all the stops, throw everything they have at this market, stop the decline in its tracks, and initiate the reversion back to the long-term uptrend. All IMHO, of course.... T