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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (10054)	2/17/2005 10:55:35 PM
From: LPS5	Respond to of 20039

Good luck with your "reversion to the mean" analysis. Huh? What are you asserting that I'm "analy[zing]"? All the law of one price says is that prices of comparably structured instruments over a comparable amount of time should have, or will have, similar values. What it does not specify is (a) the "route" that an issue might take to return to that fair price, or (b) the amount of time it might take to get back there. Personally, I have never - and would never - place a trade predicated exclusively upon mean reverting tendencies of a given product or products. It's not in my nature to attempt to wade through a river knowing only that it was an average of three-and-a-half feet deep. I understand that these concepts are exciting and sexy for the retail hobbyist to trot out in conversation, but you've demonstrated time and time again - going back to your mentally retarded dissertation on program insurance involving programmers (!) - what appears to be a definitive, fundamental lack of comprehension where economics and finance are concerned. Were I you, I'd recognize that weakness and concentrate on the basics before venturing into conceptual territory which can only lead to embarrassment. E.g., Message 20590287 Message 20590842 I hope it doesn't completely destroy you. I'd enjoy seeing you wallow in your misery from betting heavily on the rationality of the market. It would never have happened; I was primarily a vol buyer and when I did sell vol, I sold in miniscule size and even then never wrote the contracts with the large, negative gammas. Perhaps your schadenfreude impulses will find better purchase directed at my academic undertakings? :-) e