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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (23858)	2/17/2005 9:58:36 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 116555

Ork: This situation has been coming on like an Asian tsunamai for several months. Back in October, I wrote that Christmas sales of semi-laden products would NOT clear the massive (and ever-increasing) inventories and in fact, it didn't. Global cell phone sales were nowhere near the forecasts provided by the NY-based analysts and Global PC sales simply continued to sink into a glut-induced "saturated markets" swamp. PC manufacturers continue to disappear at a steady rate (we are now down to a handful where even a few years ago we had dozens of them) but the NY analysts don't seem to notice or comment on this obvious indicator. Prices for most semis have been in a funk for months and the producing factories are running at very reduced levels. I expect a very serious "fall-from-grace" as the sheep start to understand just how "commoditized" this whole sector has become. Remarkably, put leap options in the sector have remained cheap even as this whole scenario has become increasingly apparent. Not being one to look a gift horse in the choppers, I have been adding with gusto. (g) Best, Earlie