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Biotech / Medical : Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1373)	2/18/2005 10:26:52 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1834

<<That’s utter nonsense.>> There's been several products recently where the bio has given up on profit sharing and restructured into royalty bearing. They couldn't afford the losses any longer. By the time they restructured they weren't exactly in positions of strength to negotiate much better than piddly royalties. If you think the icos deal was equivalent to nbix's then you should be buying the hell out of icos right now imo. icos would have earned $190M in straight royalties last year under nbix terms.

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1373)	2/18/2005 10:31:40 AM
From: fred hayes	Respond to of 1834

>That’s utter nonsense< Wish I had said if differently. ICOS would be making money on Cialis if their deal was structured like NBIX, and ICOS wouldn't be down so much to date. I know it doesn't matter in the long run. The article implies NBIX could have the same problem as ICOS but it's an inappropriate implication and unfair comparison. It think that's an important omission and fatal flaw, but that's just my opinion. BTW, I understand how a JV works, but thanks for talking down to me.

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1373)	2/26/2005 12:05:21 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1834

ICOS will make more money from Cialis later by virtue of incurring losses now; that’s the way it works with a JV(duh). For any given value for ICOS’s aggregate DCF from all future Cialis sales, it makes little difference to the current share price whether the company gets royalties or a share of net JV profits. I have to disagree with you on this to some extent. One key issue is the efficiency of the sales force that ICOS is building relative to the efficiency of a pharma sales force. The ICOS sales force has only one product to detail - that makes it inherently inefficient, not to mention the start-up costs involved. Further, ICOS has to assume some sales and marketing responsibilities in Canada, Mexico and five European countries in 2006, and the rest of the world in 2007. The NBIX version is certainly a lot less risky - partly because they got such a sweet deal from PFE. Of course things may not look so good for them if SEPR gets munched by a big pharma and they are competing against another gorilla. Peter