Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (60424)	2/18/2005 6:50:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Jay, I think ... ... Despite current net losses on the short efforts so far, the water is fine. ... The housing/mortgage/sub-prime technicals are, in the aggregate, perceptibly rolling over; the fundamentals are nothing to bet on; and the momentum tide is rolling out and away; while the long defenders are close to exhaustion. ... Soon the defenders will be precision bombed by traitor-to-the-cause, the Maestro Greensputin, from their backside, in his effort to seek a balance between keeping the Dollar stable in order to attract international financing and keeping nasty nominal inflation in check so as to not scare the peasants, on the one hand, and setting the Dollar on gentle downward path to keep the nominal fiction of GDP growth intact, and guide the standard of living downward to achieve a paced-and-measured global equilibrium (so as to delay the exit of even more manufacturing). ... Yeah, housing and the related cronies, mortgage financing and credit guaranty, can rise more, but, gad, we will be blessed with even more profitable short opportunities :0) So, always good to save some capacity for the onslaught and then some capability for the hot pursuit. ... The longs are too long, losing real wages, pinned in by financial physics, and puffed up by toxic debt. Simply put, the mortgage beast (inclusive of housing, mortgage/sub-prime financing, and credit guarantee) is not going anywhere except down, and then out. ... Shorting Internet stocks in 2000 January would have been painful as well. If the current iteration of wagering against the crowds is not painful, it would not be sporting. ... So, paced and measured we go, first in dollops, then tranches, probing, then onslaughting, finally swarming, and rampage, then, pelvic thrust taunting. Chugs, Jay